Above the Line – US Food Retailers: Deep Dive into Key Numerator Trends for Supermarkets, Mass Merchants, Club Stores, etc.

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

19 August 2026

Above the Line – US Food

Retailers

Deep Dive into Key Numerator Trends for

Supermarkets, Mass Merchants, Club Stores, etc.

In this note, we analyze important trends for US food retailers via Numerator, an

alternative data provider that sources first-party consumer information. We have

found Numerator to be helpful in demonstrating the “why” behind key trends (for

example, it can show key sales growth drivers such as households and purchase

frequency). Below, please find charts and tables that illustrate many deep-dive,

Numerator-generated statistics.

Food Producers & Retailers

Highlights for June

Christopher Horvers, CFA AC

Christian Carlino, CFA

The percentage of shopping trips using SNAP was stable Y-Y for the first

time in multiple years. Declines were prevalent for 2+ years prior to July. That

said, at most of the retailers we track - especially at WMT, ACI, and KR - SNAP

is being used less Y-Y. Per Numerator, 3.7% of food and beverage shopping

trips use SNAP (but 6.4% for WMT, 5.4% for ACI, and 4.5% for KR). See

Figures 11, 12, 39, and 40.

Proj. sales for at-home food and beverage purchases trended negative Y/Y.

Frequency has been slipping since the beginning of the year alongside. Units

per trip have declined Y/Y for the past 13 months (typically by 2-3%). Dollars

per unit continued to grow but slowed slightly versus June. Households

continue to grow low-single digits Y/Y. See Figure 1.

Across channels, proj. food and beverage sales growth in the online

channel decelerated in July but remained the fastest growing (+8.3% Y/

Y). Outside of the Online channel (+8.3% Y/Y), dollar grew the fastest (+6.5%

Y/Y) in July, followed by Club (+4.2% Y/Y). Conversely, Drug (-9.8% Y/Y)

was down the most in July, followed by Convenience Stores (-8.4% Y/Y) and

Mass (-2.1%). C-stores turned negative earlier this year, when fuel prices

surged. See Figure 50.

In July, buy rates for food and beverage items decelerated across all

income cohorts, with all three declining Y/Y. Interestingly, the High income

consumers’ buy rate decelerated at a faster pace (-130bps sequentially versus

…