Cogent Communications: Downgrade to Underweight: Long-Term FCF Generation and Path to 4.0x Leverage Remain Elusive

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

19 August 2026

Cogent Communications

Downgrade to Underweight: Long-Term FCF

Generation and Path to 4.0x Leverage Remain Elusive

▼Underweight

Previous: Neutral

CCOI, CCOI US

Price (18 Aug 26):$10.13

▼Price Target (Dec-27):$9.00

Prior (Dec-26):$22.00

Following yet another disappointing quarter, marked by a slower wave-installation

pace and softer revenue and EBITDA, we are downgrading Cogent to

Underweight (from Neutral) and establishing a December 2027 price target of $9

(versus our prior December 2026 target of $22). Our Underweight rating is based

on (1) continued top-line pressure, driven in part by the runoff of legacy Sprint

contracts; (2) execution concerns around the Waves business, where the pace of

installs and customer acceptance continues to disappoint; and (3) elevated leverage

of 6.75x net and negative free cash flow, with no clear line of sight to the company's

4.0x target even with continued asset sales. With the data center monetization

catalyst now largely behind us, we believe investor focus will increasingly shift

back to these core operating and balance sheet concerns. Our December 2027 price

target of $9 implies 9.9x 2028E EV/EBITDA versus 8.1x 2027E at current levels.

Path to 4.0x remains elusive despite asset sales. While we are encouraged by

CCOI's sale of 10 data centers and its intention to use the proceeds to reduce

both gross and net leverage, we struggle to see a path to the company's longterm leverage target of 4.0x (from 6.75x net today), even in the event of

additional data center sales. Schaeffer characterized the 14 remaining data

centers as "comparable" to those already sold, representing "about 55

megawatts" of power, with some sites carrying incremental capacity "above

and beyond what we have today provisioned." Given CCOI's current NOLs,

however, he expects any sale to occur in early 2027 to offset taxes. A sale of

IPv4 addresses is no longer a priority either, with Schaeffer noting the company

could not "asset sell our way to perpetual cash flow growth." Beyond asset

sales, we see limited near-term relief: despite further cost-takeout

…