US Beer: Scanner Data Deep-Dive... My kingdom for lower gas prices

Research evidence excerpt

18 August 2026

European & American Alcoholic Beverages

US Beer: Scanner Data Deep-Dive... My kingdom for lower gas

prices

Nadine Sarwat, CFA

Trevor Stirling

Matthew Cheung

Asavari Paluskar, CFA, CA (India)

My kingdom for lower gas prices. In the latest Nielsen data, the industry saw modest

sequential weakening and continued very weak volume trends (Exhibit 2). On a 2-week

trailing basis to 8-Aug-26, industry volumes declined -6.2% YoY. Looking through weekly

volatility, industry volumes declined -6.3% on a 4-week trailing basis and -6.0% on a 12week trailing basis. One primary driver of industry weakness has been higher gas prices, both

YoY and sequentially in the last few weeks. We find an 48% R-Squared between 4wk trailing

beer volume growth YoY and US gas prices growth YoY (Exhibit 3 to Exhibit 4). This is also

evident is in the relative underperformance of the convenience channel since gas prices have

increased (Exhibit 5).

AB InBev 12-week volumes declined -5.2% YoY (-4.9% on a 4-week basis and -4.6% on

a 2-week basis). Bud Light volumes were down -11.6% on a 12-week basis, Natural Light

declined -8.3%, and Budweiser was down -7.7%, while Michelob Ultra continued to grow

(+2.7%). ABI outperformed the broader beer market and gained 30bps of share over the last

12 weeks, supported by Michelob Ultra and the relaunch of Busch Light Apple [n.b. this data

set excludes high-growth spirits-based Cutwater and NÜTRL].

Molson Coors 12-week volumes declined -8.0% YoY (-8.7% on a 4-week basis and -8.7%

on a 2-week basis). Coors Light volumes declined -7.8%, while Miller Lite was down -9.1%.

Coors Banquet remained a bright spot, growing +3.7% on a 12-week basis. Molson Coors

lost 40bps of share over the last 12 weeks. [n.b. this data set excludes Monaco and Fevertree].

Constellation 12-week volumes declined -2.4% YoY (-3.3% on both a 4-week and 2-week

basis). Constellation continued to significantly outperform the category, gaining 70bps of

share and outperforming the market by ~360bps over the last 12 weeks. Modelo Especial

volumes declined -4.7%, Corona Extra was down -6.9%, while Pacifico remained a bright

spot, growing +15.4% on a 12-week basis.

…