Waste Q2:26 earnings recap: A good quarter for waste, a better quarter for WCN and RSG

Research evidence excerpt

18 August 2026

US Business Services

Waste Q2:26 earnings recap: A good quarter for waste, a better

quarter for WCN and RSG

Connor Cerniglia, CFA

Bridget Alkin

The Waste Industry reported broadly positive results this Q2:26 earnings season,

with Waste Connections and Republic Services both beating and raising modestly, while

Waste Management results and guidance were mixed. Pricing was strong, beating or in

line for all three Waste companies in our coverage, while volumes were mostly in line

with expectations, driving EBITDA beats of 1.0-2.5%. The Recycling segment beat

handily for all three companies as higher recycled commodity prices benefited the industry.

Specialty waste performance was mixed, with both Waste Connections and Republic

Services reporting strong E&P and hazardous waste results, while Waste Management’s

Healthcare Solutions segment continued to miss investor expectations following the

Stericycle acquisition. Waste Connections and Republic Services led the group in Q2:26,

raising guidance, while Waste Management results and guidance comparatively were less

impressive.

We walk away from this earnings season more positive on Waste Connections

and Republic Services. For Waste Connections we continue to see upside to FY2026

guidance (50-100bps), predicated on better recycling prices, and believe management’s

comments about FCF improvement in FY2027 were underappreciated. Management

indicated FCF conversion would improve to 48-50% sometime next year from 41-42% in

FY2026, suggesting the Chiquita Canyon Landfill (CCL) impact to the business is expected

to abate. With upside to FY2026 guidance likely leading to another “beat and raise” next

quarter and upside to today’s multiple, the latter from CCL headwinds abating, we continue

to prefer Waste Connections within our Waste coverage. Republic Services had a positive

quarter, with few weaknesses in the print, and standout performance in the Commercial

segment—the only company that did not report deteriorating volumes in the segment—on

top of better Environmental Solutions performance.

We exit Q2:26 earnings season incrementally more cautious on Waste Management

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