North American Utilities: 2Q26 Model Updates: AEE, CMS, DTE, PPL, WEC & XEL

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Equity Research

18 August 2026

North American Utilities

2Q26 Model Updates: AEE, CMS, DTE, PPL, WEC &

XEL

Across our coverage universe, AEE continues to represent a favorite name for us.

At 3Q, we believe the company can and will raise the EPS CAGR as well as provide

commentary on attractive growth for years 6-10. Moreover, we see AEE

possessing a standout clean regulatory/political backdrop, differentiating the

company from peers, with MO presenting a particularly positive backdrop per our

recent NARUC meetings. For PPL, we see the GenCo JV’s 5GW of gas turbine

reservation agreements as highlighting strong confidence in deals. Moreover, we

see the potential Genco JV and KY generation’s combined $10-12bn incremental

capital through 2032 as driving an upward inflection in long-term earnings. For the

group, we update our models for recent results, reports and filings.

AEE reported 2Q26 adj EPS of $1.13, ahead of $1.09/$1.08 JPMe/Street

median estimates. Disclosures describe 2.8GW in signed ESAs coming online

from 2027 through 2029 representing upside to 5-year sales and earnings

forecasts. AEE sees this load growth driving a 60% increase in AEE MO sales

by the end of 2029 vs 2025, roughly doubling the current resource plan’s 6.2%

sales CAGR assumption. Alongside sales growth, we see potential for

meaningful capex upside given the current plan would serve +1,200MW by

2030 and +1,500MW by 2032 (with the ability to flex up to 2GW by 2032). In

addition, the company points to a broader pipeline of 0.6GWs MO construction

agreements as well as 4GWs with completed interconnection studies. We look

ahead to the company’s 2026 MO IRP, seeing the filing as the catalyst for AEE

to refresh its generation needs and lift the broader capital plan. Ameren won

competitive transmission bids in MISO, representing ~$700mm capital

investment upside to its current capital plan. With two more competitive bids

submitted and transmission investments for data center growth not yet in the

capital plan, we see the company building a pathway for sustained transmission

investment opportunities in the next five-year plan and beyond, contributing to

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