HUB24 FY26 results: Is HUB‘s guidance conservative or clairvoyant?

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

19 August 2026

HUB24

FY26 results: Is HUB’s guidance conservative or

clairvoyant?

Overweight

HUB.AX, HUB AU

Price (18 Aug 26):A$79.94

▼Price Target (Jun-27):A$98.00

Prior (Jun-27):A$100.00

HUB’s FY26 results were inline on revenues/UEBITDA vs JPMe and a small beat

at UNPAT on a more favourable tax rate. The main concern is the net flows

trajectory with HUB signaling caution into FY27, with perhaps a pull back from

levels seen in FY26. We have adopted this cautious view in our estimates with

JPMe FY27 net flows at $18.1bn (vs FY26A $18.9bn). Importantly, we note

HUB’s FY27 FUA guide comes in below NWL’s guidance of ~$19bn (midpoint)

despite showing consistently stronger momentum to date, and having a larger base

of clients/advisors which ultimately generate flows i.e. we think there could be

some conservatism vs. NWL. We adjust FY27/28 EPS by -2.1%/2.6%. Even with

cautious estimates, JPMe FY27/FY28 PE is ~41x/~35x respectively, which we

think is an attractive entry point for a business generating mid-to-high teens EPS

growth. Remain OW with $98/share PT. Key points:

Mgmt tempers net flows expectations: HUB guided to FY28 FUA of $186200bn (~$193bn midpoint assuming a 5.5% market growth), implying $18bn/

$19bn net flows for FY27/FY28 respectively. This is despite HUB’s FY26A

net flows of $18.9bn and NWL’s guidance of +17-30% growth on FY26

(although this would include some unspecified benefit on their new MS Wealth

partnership). It appears that HUB is expressing greater caution around the

timing/pace of the post-budget recovery than NWL is. We have adopted this

caution and adjusted net flows to $18.1bn and also included a strong 2H skew

in netflows (i.e. back-end recovery/44-56 split).

Margin expectations appear inconsistent (or conservative): Mgmt

indicated ~15% FY27 Platform opex growth i.e. a slowdown from ~22% in

FY26. Mgmt also indicated broadly flat FY27 Platform UEBITDA margins.

However, we show in ‘Figure 1’ that assuming $18bn in net flows, 5.5% market

growth, 15% opex growth and ~1bp (or ~3%) of revenue margin compression

still implies ~128bps of UEBITDA margin expansion. In order to solve for

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