US: Another good month for IP

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Economic Research

18 August 2026

US: Another good month for IP

Industrial production started the third quarter on a solid note, rising 0.2%m/m in

July, with manufacturing posting an identical gain. June's softer reading was also

revised up to 0.3%m/m for both total IP and manufacturing, reinforcing a message

of improving underlying momentum. While yesterday's Empire State report is the

only regional survey for August available, the early signs point to continued solid

growth in the coming months. Manufacturing surveys have been on an upward

trajectory, with August readings from the Philadelphia Fed and the flash S&P

Global PMI due Thursday and Friday, respectively.

Solid breadth across the durable goods categories has kept manufacturing output

expanding at a 2.0% annualized pace over the past three months, with durable

goods manufacturing up 8.2% on the same basis. This trend continued in July, with

manufacturing output ex-autos rising 0.4%m/m, reflecting broad-based gains

across most durable goods categories. The aircraft segment, which has been a

consistent contributor to IP growth for over a year, rose 1.4%m/m after relatively

soft prints in the prior two months. Computers and electronics rose 1.9%,

continuing to benefit from the surge in data center buildouts tied to AI

infrastructure investment. Electrical equipment—also lifted by electrification

demand from that same buildout—rose 1.3%. Defense and space equipment

posted a strong 1.8%m/m gain; the pace of growth in this segment has accelerated

since early this year and is now up 5.9% since the start of the Mideast conflict.

Motor vehicles and parts, meanwhile, fell 2.1%m/m, consistent with a pullback in

auto production schedules following a strong second quarter.

Elsewhere, oil and gas well drilling surged 5.3%m/m in July and is now up

9.2%oya. Until last month, this segment had shown little unusual response to the

recent run-up in global energy prices. Utilities output also rose 0.5%—the largest

gain in three months—consistent with a weather-driven boost from above-normal

cooling demand. Manufacturing activity in both primary and fabricated metals

…