China Ecommerce: Jul-26 online sales: Online retail sales hold recovery, while headline retail softens

Research evidence excerpt

Asia Pacific Equity Research

18 August 2026

China Ecommerce

Jul-26 online sales: Online retail sales hold recovery,

while headline retail softens

• Key takeaways from the July print. First, headline retail growth softened

again after June’s brief return to positive territory, though the weakness was

mostly an autos story. Overall retail sales grew 0.6% yoy in July vs. 1.0% yoy

in June, per NBS. The drag was concentrated in autos, which fell 17% yoy in

July; ex-auto retail sales grew a steadier 2.5% yoy (vs. 3.0% in June). Second,

online retail sales held the recovery. Online physical goods sales grew 3.3% yoy

in July, a modest deceleration from 3.9% in June, but still the third consecutive

month of over 2.5% growth after the 0.2% April trough. Online services sales

returned to positive territory, at 1.2% yoy in July, per JPMe, vs. -1.5% in June,

lifting total online retail sales growth to 2.4% yoy vs. 2.0% in June. Online

penetration of physical goods sales reached 25.7% in 7M26, up 0.8ppts yoy.

• J.P. Morgan view. The July print looks less soft than the headline suggests if

stripping out autos: Ex-auto retail grew 2.5% yoy, and online physical goods

sales held at 3.3% yoy growth, implying that the consumption recovery is intact,

but narrow, and online-led. The read-through for e-commerce platforms is

incrementally positive, but not thesis-changing, in our view: Sustained growth

should marginally support 3Q GMV for BABA, PDD and VIPS, while the more

actionable signal for JD is the sharp narrowing of the appliance decline as tradein comps finally ease, alongside another strong month in communication devices

(20% yoy growth). Absent incremental policy support, we expect this pattern –

weak headline, resilient online, easing trade-in drag – to persist into 2H until we

see a clear demand inflection; in the meantime, we see greater de-risking in JD’s

electronics revenue trajectory than re-rating potential for broadline platforms.

Head of China Equity Research

and Co-Head of Asia TMT

Research

Alex Yao AC

(86 21) 6106 6505

SAC Registration Number: S1730523020001

Nancy Liu

(86 21) 6106 6343

SAC Registration Number: S1730524090001

J.P. Morgan Securities (China) Company

…