CSN: One overhang cleared, but more wood to chop

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Latin America Credit Research

17 August 2026

CSN

Neutral

CSNABZ

One overhang cleared, but more wood to chop

CSN reported 2Q26 results that were ahead of expectations across most segments,

with steel returning to double-digit margins, cement delivering a second

consecutive record EBITDA, and mining absorbing freight and currency

headwinds while maintaining margins above 30%. Even with this operational

momentum, the company still burned R$1.3bn of cash on a consolidated basis, as

a working capital release only partially offset elevated financial expenses, capex,

and prepayment liability amortization. Reported net leverage deteriorated

modestly to 3.5x sequentially, rising to 4.6x inclusive of prepayments, and remains

materially higher on an ex-mining basis at around 6.0x. The core takeaway is that

operational momentum has improved and management is generally executing

against its stated strategy so far, but structural cash burn at the HoldCo level

persists. With iron ore prices lower and capex intensity typically higher in 2H,

working capital improvements and better segment results alone are unlikely to

drive consolidated free cash flow generation in 2026, contain HoldCo

deterioration, or meaningfully reduce the need for asset sale proceeds to right-size

the balance sheet.

CSN has made tangible progress on its defined strategy since our last report, and

we acknowledge this. Binding offers for the cement business have arrived within

the timeframe management communicated, and the exchange addressing the 2028

bond maturity removes one overhang as the company works towards executing on

asset sales and bridging towards the completion of the P15 expansion project, after

which capex should normalize and free cash flow generation should improve

structurally. That said, a significant amount of work remains. Bank debt and

debenture maturities still need to be addressed, and with only ~R$2.4bn of

underlying HoldCo cash once bridge loan proceeds are deployed — set against

~R$3.7bn of ex-mining maturities still due in 2026, R$5.6bn in 2027, ~R$1.3bn

of 2H capex, and ~R$2.8bn of 2H interest expense — the math is challenging.

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