CHINA/HK FIRST TO MARKET

Research evidence excerpt

Asia Pacific Equity Research

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China/HK First to Market

18 August 2026

Top Stories

China: July domestic weakness triggers 2H growth revision, China (Tingting Ge)

Fiscal spillover will also affect early 2027

July data disappointed across the board, with retail sales down 0.3%m/m sa and FAI contraction widened

across major components.

Services sales and high-tech investment outperformed, but not enough to offset weakness elsewhere.

| China Securities, China (Peter Zhang)

Retail normalizing, institutional accelerating, tech upcycle favor leading brokers

China brokers enter 2H26 with a more bifurcated setup: Retail-driven revenue lines are normalizing as Ashare ADT and system margin financing ease from recent peaks, while institutional businesses are

accelerating on stronger demand, policy supports and a more diversified business mix. Following CXMT’s

A-share IPO, we expect a technology sector upcycle to bring incremental upside to brokers’ revenues

through IB fees and investment income. Leading brokers with stronger institutional exposure and techfinancing franchises are set to benefit more from the above trends. Against this backdrop, we downgrade

East Money to Neutral and upgrade CITIC Sec-H to OW. Top picks: CICC, Citic Sec.

China Consumer (Jessie Xu)

Rain check on retail: China consumption cools again

China’s retail sales print disappointed again in July, with headline growth easing to +0.6% YoY (vs. +1.0% in

June) and missing Bloomberg consensus (+1.5%). Ex-auto retail sales also softened to +2.5% YoY from

+3.0% in June. Online physical goods sales rose 3%, outperforming offline sales (-0.3%) again, as typhoons

and heavy rains crimped foot traffic. Rural consumption (+1.6%) again outpaced urban (+0.5%), while

above-scale large enterprises (-3.4%) lagged the overall print – a result that leaves us scratching our heads.

…