Amcor: Solid 4Q26 on Synergies and Berry; Soft Transition-Period Guide Offset by a Constructive CY2027 Outlook

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

North America Credit Research

17 August 2026

Overweight

Amcor

AMCR

Solid 4Q26 on Synergies and Berry; Soft TransitionPeriod Guide Offset by a Constructive CY2027 Outlook

Figure 1: AMCR 4QFY26 Earnings Review

In $ millions

Revenues

Adj EBITDA

% margin

LTM Adjusted EBITDA

Cash

Total Debt

Gross Leverage

Net Leverage

4Q26

6,398.0

1,045.0

16.3%

3,673.0

1,115.0

14,012.0

3.8x

3.5x

3Q26

5,914.0

892.0

15.1%

3,725.3

1,587.0

15,853.0

4.3x

3.8x

% q/q

8.2%

17.2%

125 bps

4Q25

5,082.0

789.0

15.5%

3,700.0

827.0

14,098.0

3.8x

3.6x

% y/y

25.9%

32.4%

81 bps

Source: Company Reports

Earnings Review: AMCR reported solid 4QFY26 results. Despite a

challenging macro backdrop, AMCR’s 4Q26 print was a touch ahead of

expectations, driven by volume growth and input cost management. Revenue was

up 26% y/y at $6.4bn (vs $6.0bn est) and adj EBITDA was up 32% y/y at $1.05bn

(vs $1.02bn est), with a margin of 16.3%, supported by synergy realization, cost

management, and the impact of the Berry acquisition. Global Flexible Packaging

Solutions sales were up 16% y/y (constant currency basis), with volumes ~1%

higher. Global Rigid Packaging Solutions revenue was up 35% y/y, with core

volumes ~0.5% higher. Net debt at the fiscal YE26 was $12.9bn with net leverage

of 3.5x, in line with management’s expectations.

Earnings Outlook: AMCR’s guidance for CY27 suggests further de-levering

while acknowledging transition-period challenges related to Middle East

conflict impact. For the six-month transition period ending December 31, 2026

(reflecting the shift to a December year-end), AMCR expects adj EPS of $1.80$1.90 (below the street at $1.96) and leverage of 3.5x-3.6x, with volumes expected

to be flat to modestly up. The company reaffirmed its $650mm 3-yr synergy target

and guided to ~$130mm of synergies in the transition period, alongside recovering

more than $500mm in cash over the next 12 months, primarily driven by the

reversal of WC impacts from the Middle East conflict. Capex is expected to be

$575-$625mm for the transition period. Looking ahead into calendar 2027,

management has line of sight to double-digit adj EPS growth in calendar year 2027

…