Kao (4452): Higher likelihood that growth will drive medium-term profit expansion; raise price target to ¥4,000

Research evidence excerpt

J P M O R G A N

Asia Pacific Equity Research

18 August 2026

Kao (4452)

Higher likelihood that growth will drive medium-term

profit expansion; raise price target to ¥4,000

Overweight

4452.T, 4452 JP

Price (17 Aug 26):¥3,493

▲Price Target (Dec-27):¥4,000

Prior (Dec-26):¥3,900

We raise our price target from ¥3,900 to ¥4,000 to reflect our revised earnings

forecasts, extending the price target horizon to December 2027 from December

2026. We believe the global consumer care (GC) segment has reached a turning

point toward growth, based on 2Q FY2026 results. We also confirmed the progress

in the transformation of its chemical business. We recognize the company’s

earnings growth sustainability has improved. We expect higher raw material costs

due to the Middle East conflict to be a drag on profit growth from 3Q, but believe

profit momentum could improve at an earlier stage with higher value-added

products and price hikes. Kao’s robust supply chain management should also

support profits (see our July 27 report). We reiterate our Overweight rating.

Raising our operating profit forecasts: We now forecast operating profit of

¥190.7 billion for FY2026, ¥207.0 billion for FY2027, and ¥219.6 billion for

FY2028. We expect Kao to approach its medium-term business plan target of

record profit in FY2027. We raise our forecasts by ¥7.7 billion, ¥3.6 billion,

and ¥4.7 billion, respectively. We lower our Dubai crude oil price assumption

from $100/bbl to $80/bbl for 3Q FY2026 onward, which reduces the

anticipated impact from higher raw material costs on the GC segment

compared to our prior forecast. Based on 1H results, we only slightly adjust our

estimates for price hikes and volume effects. By segment, we raise our

operating profit estimates for the chemical business, while lowering that for

health beauty, reflecting a change in our assumption that restructuring costs

will be allocated to this segment instead of as headquarters costs.

Overseas GC business seems to be nearing turning point toward growth:

Overseas GC business sales grew 3.4% YoY in 2Q on a currency-neutral basis.

Growth continues in priority areas such as cosmetics and feminine care. By

…