TWA #33/2026: Earnings Wrap: Capital Return Is Key

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August 14, 2026 05:34 PM GMT

Gaming, Lodging and Real Estate | Asia Pacific

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Praveen K Choudhary

Equity Analyst

TWA #33/2026: Earnings Wrap:

Capital Return Is Key

Dan Chee

Equity Analyst

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

Monica Dasoju

HK property is in upcycle, yet results season is about capital

return. Companies (WREIC, Galaxy, Swire PAC, Swire Prop, HKL)

that surprised on dividend saw outperformance, while

companies that disappointed (CKH, CKA) saw underperformance.

Are the worst behind us for Macau and ASEAN gaming?

Equity Analyst

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Anson Lee, CFA

Research Associate

Singapore Marketing Feedback: Investors are interested in "non-AI" trades. Strong

balance sheet, high dividend yield, HK property upcycle and Macau valuation are

interesting but stock picking is key.

Key questions we are answering in this report:

1) Macau Gaming: Have we reached the bottom of the earnings revision, and can

investors rely on sustainable earnings and thus high dividend yield to choose the

stocks? In terms of 2Q EBITDA, we saw Wynn and Galaxy perform over Sands and

MLCO. Galaxy raised dividend by 30%, while MGM's fell 20%.

2) ASEAN Gaming: Are the worst behind us? GENS and Bloom surprised on the

upside with the help of lower provisions and win rate respectively.

3) HK Property and Conglomerates: How do we pick stocks? Stocks moved on

capital return related surprises. CKH and CKA undeperformed as large cash inflow

did not result in any excess capital return. On the other hand, companies like

WREIC, Swire, Wharf, HK Land and JMH all surprised on DPS growth in 1H26.

4) China Hotels: What are the most important drivers for relative outperformance?

5) India Property: Post F1Q27, how do we rank our stock picks? Which stocks have

catalysts? What did we learn from Propequity 2Q26 data.

Hong Kong/China Multi-Industry

Asia Pacific

Industry View

In-Line

Hong Kong/Macau Gaming

Asia Pacific

Industry View

In-Line

ASEAN Gaming

Asia Pacific

Industry View

Cautious

Hong Kong Property

Asia Pacific

Industry View

Attractive

Hong Kong/China Leisure & Lodging

…