Carabao Group (CBG.BK): 2Q26 results beat on stronger domestic sales

Research evidence excerpt

Flash |

14 Aug 2026 13:34:07 ET │ 14 pages

Carabao Group (CBG.BK)

2Q26 results beat on stronger domestic sales

CITI'S TAKE

Sell

Price (14 Aug 26 17:00)

Bt55.00

Target price

Bt32.00

Expected share price return

-41.8%

Expected dividend yield

2.2%

Expected total return

-39.6%

Market Cap

Bt55,000M

US$1,658M

CBG reported 2Q26 earnings of Bt736mn (-8% YoY +20% QoQ), beating

Bloomberg consensus by 8% and our estimate by 23% driven by strongerthan-expected domestic beverage sales. The YoY decline was mainly due

to lower Cambodia sales while resilient domestic demand helped support

profitability given its higher-margin profile relative to the fast-growing

distribution business. However, branded beverage margin started to

soften QoQ as higher input costs began to flow through. Looking into

3Q26, the earnings base should turn more favorable as Cambodia

disruption started in 3Q25, but we expect rising input costs to limit QoQ

earnings recovery. We maintain our Sell rating, as CBG’s valuation looks

demanding at 19x P/E with the current share price already pricing in an

earnings recovery, in our view.

Preenapa DetchsriAC

Impressive domestic beverage sales growth — 2Q26 Total revenue was at Bt5.9bn

(+4% YoY and +9% QoQ), driven by distribution sales and domestic beverage.

Domestic branded sales were Bt2.1bn (+15% YoY but +14% QoQ), which the

company attributed to broader distribution network which significantly outpaced

market growth at low single digits. Overseas sales were Bt979mn (-31% YoY and

+23% QoQ) from Cambodia sales disruption while Myanmar and other export

markets improved. Distribution revenue grew to Bt2.6bn (+23% YoY +5% QoQ) from

alcoholic beverages and broader distribution network.

Beverage margin slightly dipped as higher cost started to feed through — 2Q26

blended gross margin was 26.4% (-60bps YoY and +50bps QoQ). The YoY

contraction was driven by a revenue mix shift to rising to 45% of revenue (vs. 38% in

1Q25), a segment that carries a lower gross margin of 8.8%. Branded beverage

margin declined QoQ to 42% from rising input cost (-50bps QoQ and +240bps YoY).

SG&A to sales increased to 10.8% (vs. 9.8% in 2Q25 and 11.6% in 1Q26) due to the

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