Global Metals & Mining: Jul’26 new TSF +24%y/y (7M’26 -7.2%y/y), FY’26 still may grow marginally if normal seasonality holds

Research evidence excerpt

Vi ewp oint |

14 Aug 2026 16:46:37 ET │ 9 pages

Global Metals & Mining

Jul’26 new TSF +24%y/y (7M26 -7%y/y), FY’26 still may grow

marginally if normal seasonality holds

CITI'S TAKE

Inflection points in metals demand in China have correlated with inflection

points in trailing 6-month TSFs in the past. Jul’26 new TSF at 1.4trn RMB

was +24%y/y, bringing 7M’26 new TSF to -7.2%y/y. 2025 new TSF is up

10%y/y, reversing the 9%y/y decline in 2024, but 2H’25 was -9%y/y; hence

the decline YTD is against a tougher comp. 7M’26 new TSF is typically 62%

of full year, and extrapolating 7M’26 for average seasonality gives 35.9trn of

annual TSF vs FY’25 TSF of 35.6trn). 2026 steel demand should still be

weighed down with the lag effect from weak FY’24 and fading 2H’25-1H’26

new TSF.

Jul’26 new TSF +24%y/y (7M’26: -7.2%y/y), after 2025 new TSF +10%y/y (though

2H’25 -9%y/y), reversing the 9% y/y decline in 2024 — New Total Social Financing

(TSF) for Jul’26 came in at 1.4 trn RMB. After a strong start to 2025, new TSF growth

had decelerated in 2H’25 and YTD’26. Though FY’25 new TSF was +10%y/y, 2H’25

within it was -9%y/y.

Government bond issuance accelerating, corporate credit muted and household

deleveraging continued — Government bond financing remained the most

important support for new TSF. The monthly reading hit RMB1,320bn, the second

highest within the year as issuance accelerates. Corporate credit demand stayed

subdued. Corporate long-term loans contracted -RMB230bn (vs. -RMB260bn last

July) while bond financings came in at RMB454bn (vs. RMB275bn). The combined

long-term borrowing was sluggish at RMB224bn, better than last July’s RMB15bn

driven by the anti-involution campaign but still below the average of RMB392bn for

July during 2022-24. Household deleveraging continued. Household long-term

loans dropped -RMB120bn (vs. -RMB110bn) and short-term loans contracted RMB340bn (vs. -RMB340bn), changing little from last year and not boding well for

consumption recovery (China Economics - Still Weak Credit Demand Amid PBoC

Policy Caution).

From a bottom-up view infrastructure construction pipeline backlog shrinking,

property still a concern — While the market

the strength of

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