1H26 trading statement – HEPS misses but FCF in-line, Windfall slips

Research evidence excerpt

Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley

M

Update

August 11, 2026 01:24 PM GMT

RMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+

Gold Fields Limited | Europe

Christopher Nicholson

Equity Strategist and Analyst

1H26 trading statement – HEPS

misses but FCF in-line, Windfall

slips

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged

Modest shortfall

Modest revision lower

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Brian Morgan

Equity Analyst

Gold Fields Limited (GFIJ.J, GFI SJ)

EEMEA - Metals & Mining | South Africa

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 7, 2026)

52-Week Range

Mkt cap, curr (mn)

Net debt (12/26e) (mn)*

EV, curr (mn)*

Equal-weight

In-Line

ZAc 65,500

ZAc 66,354

ZAc 98,623- 51,029

US$36,920

US$(358)

US$38,602

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

Goldfields are guiding 1H26 HEPS to $1.98-2.18/share (+72 to +90% y/y) a miss

on both MSe of $2.61/share and Visible Alpha consensus of $2.68/share. From the

information provided, a portion of this miss is likely due to higher unit costs plus

expensing of Windfall capex which was previously expected to be capitalised.

However, adjusted FCF before discretionary investments (the number off which

dividends are declared) is broadly in-line with MSe, guided to $2,385- 2,636m

(MSe $2,470m). We do not have further information on capex or working capital

with this trading statement.

2Q26 attri production of 630k oz is in-line with MSe of 634k oz. Salares Norte

continues to outperform, however despite sequential improvement in 2Q26 Gruyere

and Tarkwa mines are now seen at risk of not meeting full year guidance. Overall,

production for 2H26 is expected to be in-line with the 1H26 (1,260k oz) with FY26

production at upper end of 2.4-2.6m oz guidance range – as expected.

2Q26 unit costs higher – AISC is expected to be $1,960/oz (+13% y/y and +7% q/q)

ahead of MSe of $1,845/oz, AIC is expected to be $2,200/oz, negatively impacted by

higher cost of sales, royalties and sustaining capex and lower by-product credits. No

change to FY26 AISC and AIC guidance ranges however, AIC is now expected to be

…