Looking for catalysts

Research evidence excerpt

Looking for catalysts

Idea

July 20, 2026 12:00 AM GMT

RMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+MSA Gold | EEMEA Christopher Nicholson

Equity Strategist and Analyst

Looking for catalysts Christopher.Nicholson@rmbmorganstanley.comBrian Morgan +27 11 587-0816

Equity Analyst

Brian.Morgan3@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0803

We provide a preview of the potential catalysts for the SA gold

EEMEA - Metals & Mining

miners heading into the next reporting season. We cut earnings Europe

estimates and price targets on the back of our latest price deck. Industry View In-Line

View into mid-year earnings: As we recently showed, higher real US yields/interest Exhibit 1: Changes to ratings and price

rate expectations have been the primary driver weighing on the South African gold targets

equities' performance since the start of the Iran conflict. That said, at individual

equity level there has been a significant widening in the dispersion of valuation

multiples between the names over the past 12 months ( Exhibit 4 ) – AngloGold has

re-rated, whereas Gold Fields and Harmony have de-rated against the global peer Source: RMB Morgan Stanley Research estimates. OW = Overweight; EW =

group. In Exhibits 11-13, we provide a preview into the upcoming reporting season Equal-weight. Note: Priced as at 16 July 2026 close.

and highlight catalysts that could potentially alter this dispersion (or not).

• AngloGold: 1/ Given our estimated $1.4bn net cash position at 30 June 2026,

we see scope for a dividend payout in excess of the 50% of FCF per policy

(paid out 62% in FY25). However, AngloGold's $1bn net cash position target

(and the outcome of the shareholder vote on the proposed $2bn share

buyback on 23 July) is likely to cap the payout to 50% at mid-year, in our

view.