Risk Reward Update: Trial Holdings (141A) | Japan

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M

Update

August 11, 2026 12:00 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Trial Holdings (141A) | Japan

Ai Furukawa

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update

What’s Changed

Trial Holdings (141A.T)

From

To

Price Target

¥5,000

¥4,400

Bull Case

¥6,700

¥6,000

Base Case

¥5,000

¥4,400

Bear Case

¥3,000

¥2,600

Updated Components

EPS

Investment Thesis

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

Trial Holdings (141A.T, 141A JP)

Specialty Stores | Japan

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 10, 2026)

52-Week Range

Fiscal Year Ending

Overweight

In-Line

¥4,400

¥3,265

¥4,840-1,996

06/25 06/26e 06/27e 06/28e

Risk Reward for Trial Holdings (141A.T) has been updated

EPS (¥)**

Prior EPS (¥)**

Reason for change

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Adjusting our earnings outlook based on recent developments: We lower our OP

96.2

19.6

20.9

90.8

103.5

127.8

139.9

forecasts by 8% for F6/26, 6% for F6/27, and 6% for F6/28. Our 4Q F6/26 OP

forecast is ¥6.2bn (vs. FactSet consensus of ¥5.5bn). Key points to watch in the

earnings announcement include Trial's parent gross margin outlook and the

progress of Seiyu's turnaround.

We revise our price target to ¥4,400, applying a multiple of 11.1x to our F6/27

EBITDA forecast. Although the new fiscal year is now underway, we use F6/27 as the

base year for our price target given that Seiyu is entering a turnaround phase

involving large-scale store renovations. In conjunction with our earnings forecast

revisions, we lower the multiple used in our target price calculation modestly from

11.7x to 11.1x. While this remains above the company's average multiple of 10.5x since

the beginning of 2026, we believe OP momentum will improve as strategic

investments are deployed, and therefore view this as an appropriate valuation level.

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with

companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,

investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of

interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley

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