Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Limited | Asia Pacific Risk Reward Update

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M

Update

August 11, 2026 10:00 AM GMT

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Limited | Asia Pacific

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

Archana Menon, CFA

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update

What’s Changed

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Limited (ADIA.NS)

From

To

Price Target

Rs127.00

Rs114.00

Bull Case

Rs218.00

Rs196.00

Base Case

Rs118.00

Rs105.00

Bear Case

Rs55.00

Rs48.00

Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Limited (ADIA.NS, ABFRL

IN)

Updated Components

India Consumer | India

EPS

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 10, 2026)

52-Week Range

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

Risk Reward for Aditya Birla Fashion and Retail Limited

(ADIA.NS) has been updated.

Reason for change

Earnings Change: We update our model for the annual report and 1Q performance,

actualizing F26 earnings and introducing F29 estimates. Our top-line estimates are

Overweight

In-Line

Rs114.00

Rs61.04

Rs94.95-53.51

Fiscal Year Ending

03/26 03/27e 03/28e 03/29e

EPS (Rs)**

Prior EPS (Rs)**

(6.36)

(6.82)

(5.99)

(5.52)

(5.14)

(4.57)

(3.80)

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

largely unchanged. We tweak our F27e and FY28e EBITDA margin assumptions

lower by 167bps and 190bps to 9.3% and 11.3%, respectively, factoring in weaker

delivery in 1Q. Consequently, our F27e and FY28e losses at the net profit level are

higher by 9% and 13%, respectively.

Revised price target of Rs114 (vs Rs127 earlier): Our base/bull/bear case scenario

values are down by 10-13%, owing to the above-mentioned earnings changes, partly

offset by rolling forward our residual income (RI) model by five months. All other RI

assumptions are unchanged.

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