Risk Reward Update: Exxaro Resources Limited | Europe

Research evidence excerpt

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M

Update

August 11, 2026 09:16 AM GMT

RMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+

Exxaro Resources Limited | Europe

Brian Morgan

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update

Exxaro Resources Limited (EXXJ.J, EXX SJ)

What’s Changed

EEMEA - Metals & Mining | South Africa

Exxaro Resources Limited (EXXJ.J)

From

To

Price Target

ZAc 26,000

ZAc 25,000

Base Case

ZAc 26,000

ZAc 25,000

Updated Components

EPS

Risk Reward for Exxaro Resources Limited (EXXJ.J) has been

updated

Reason for change

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 7, 2026)

52-Week Range

Overweight

In-Line

ZAc 25,000

ZAc 19,950

ZAc 23,053- 15,863

Fiscal Year Ending

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

EPS (ZAc)**

Prior EPS (ZAc)**

3,226

3,405

3,684

3,648

3,826

4,322

4,361

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

We update earnings following Kumba's 1H26 results and updated coal volume

guidance with Exxaro's pre-close update. We lower Grootegeluk sales to Eskom

from 24Mt to 22Mt. Together these drivers results in EPS falling 8% in 2026e and

5% in 2027e. Out PT falls from R260/s to R250/s.

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