PGMs on the margin: SA Rocks | Europe

Research evidence excerpt

PGMs on the margin: SA Rocks | Europe

Idea

June 25, 2026 11:01 PM GMT

RMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+MSA Rocks | Europe Brian Morgan

Equity Analyst

PGMs on the margin Brian.Morgan3@rmbmorganstanley.comChristopher Nicholson +27 11 587-0803

Equity Strategist and Analyst

Christopher.Nicholson@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0816

The PGM basket price is down 20% over the last 3 months.

EEMEA - Metals & Mining

Producer margins are still fine. Europe

Industry View In-Line

Exhibit 1: At current prices, the PGM industry is still in the money

Anglo American Plc & Teck Resources: Copper at

1400 2027 Margin Curve - Sustaining Margin (USD per 6E oz) Spot prices the Core (22 Jun 2026)

1200 Gold Fields Limited: When is Ghana "in the

1000 Booysendal price"? (19 Jun 2026) Nornickel

800 Amandelbult The Oil Manual: 'Let the Oil Flow' (15 Jun 2026) (USD/oz) 600 Eland Rivers Zimplats Two Zondereinde BHP Group Ltd: Rising data centre build favours Margin 400 Unki Mototolo Marikana

Marula Modikwa Mogalakwena 200 Rustenburg Rustenburg Mimosa Sustaining BHP's commodity mix – but there's plenty of

0 Impala Sibanye alpha too (13 May 2026)

0Stillwater 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 Sibanye-Stillwater: Finland trip day 2 (22 Apr

-200

-400 2026)

Cumulative Production (6E oz 000) Sibanye-Stillwater: Finland trip day 1 (20 Apr

Source: RMB Morgan Stanley estimates 2026)

Still making money. The PGM basket is down c20% in the last 3 months, broadly in SA Gold: Asymmetry favours upside (15 Apr

line with the decline in share prices. Running our producer margins at spot for 2027, 2026)

we still find the industry is making good cash margins. On our estimates, Northam's metal&ROCK: The Price Deck – 2Q26: Two-Way