African Rainbow Minerals | Europe: Bokoni approved

Research evidence excerpt

African Rainbow Minerals | Europe: Bokoni approved

Update

July 23, 2026 06:40 AM GMT

RMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+MAfrican Rainbow Minerals | Europe Brian Morgan

Equity Analyst

Bokoni approved Brian.Morgan3@rmbmorganstanley.comChristopher Nicholson

Equity Strategist and Analyst

Christopher.Nicholson@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0816

Key Takeaways

African Rainbow Minerals (ARIJ.J, ARI SJ)

Project scope (volumes, capex) is inline with expectations. Board approval was EEMEA - Metals & Mining | South Africa

faster than we expected. Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View In-Line

We estimate ARM can fund the project from cashflows and available cash on Price target ZAc 20,000

hand despite cash generation being depressed. Shr price, close (Jul 22, 2026) ZAc 17,108

52-Week Range ZAc 27,668- 16,310

PGM market S/D impact limited for now, only really impacting post 2030 Mkt cap, curr (mn) ZAR 37,749

Net debt (06/26e) (mn)* ZAR (6,675)

We expect a negative investor response EV, curr (mn)* ZAR 35,400

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

ARM has announced board approval for development of the Bokoni project. The

project includes a new 120ktpa concentrator and recommissioning of an existing

60ktpa concentrator. The total project cost amounts to R15.2b. First production

from the smaller concentrator is planned for the back-end of the CY27 and the new

concentrator in the first half of CY30. Planned production is 350-400k6e oz. Bear in

mind that Bokoni's UG2 orebody is very high grade, but steeply dipping. Life of mine

is 19 years but we expect significant life extensions beyond this.

The broad concept is inline with our expectations, but board approval has come

sooner. Historically ARM's feasibility included a new 240ktpa concentrator and