Global Macro Watch: Known Unknowns 2 -7 August

Research evidence excerpt

Accessible version

Global Macro Watch

Known Unknowns 2 -7 August

US: July jobs likely to show fading risks to labor market

02 August 2026

We expect payrolls to rise by a below-consensus (but still firm) 80k in July (private: 95k).

Benign claims data and steady labor market indicators point to continued job growth,

though we see some downside risks from summer distortions, softer ADP data, and a

potential reversal in local gov’t hiring. We expect the u-rate to round up to 4.3% as

participation rebounds, though strong household employment could keep it at 4.2%. A

report in line with our forecast would reinforce the view that downside risks to the labor

market have largely faded, supporting our call for three hikes this year.

Economics Rates & FX

Global

Table of Contents

Sunday

4

Europe: Watch out for signs of deteriorating sentiment

Monday

4

Tuesday

5

Wednesday

5

Keep an eye on potential revisions to “final” July PMIs in the Euro area and in the UK for

signs of deterioration stemming from the renewed surge in energy prices (Mon/Wed).

German factory orders should increase (Thu), with the by now standard risk from public

defense orders. Industrial production, meanwhile, is likely to contract slightly again in Jun

(Fri). We expect Swedish inflation to come in at 0.7% yoy in July.

Stable labor market data in Canada and New Zealand

Known Unknowns

2

Known Unknowns (EM)

3

Thursday

6

Friday

7

Research Analysts

12

In Canada, we expect employment to grow by 20.0k jobs in July, following a gain of 18.2k

in June. The unemployment rate will likely stay at 6.5%. In New Zealand, we expect a

mild uptick in the unemployment rate to 5.4% in, up from 5.3% in the first quarter.

Antonio Gabriel

Global Economist

BofAS

The week ahead in Emerging Markets

There are monetary policy meetings in India, Brazil, Mexico and Czech Republic. CPI in

Indonesia, Korea, Mexico and Türkiye. Exports data in China.

Pedro Diaz

Caribbean Economist

BofAS

US: Trade, ADP, S&P Global PMIs, jobless claims, unit labor costs, NFP, Fed speakers.

Global Economics Rates & FX

BofAS

Euro area: PMIs (F), retail sales, Germany IP, factory orders.

Japan: BoJ minutes.

Canada: Jobs data.

Scandies: Sweden CPIF.

…