Macau Gaming: Jul‘26 GGR -8% YoY & at 83% of Jul‘19; 2026E EBITDA forecast revise down

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Macau Gaming

Jul’26 GGR -8% YoY & at 83% of Jul’19;

2026E EBITDA forecast revise down

Industry Overview

Jul’26 GGR -8% YoY and at ~83% of Jul’19

03 August 2026

Jul’26 GGR fell by 8.4% YoY to MOP20.3bn, primarily due to disruptions from Typhoon

Noul and continued distractions from World Cup. This represents 83% of Jul’19 level

(Exhibit 1). ADR was MOP654mn, +6% MoM from Jun'26. 7M26 GGR was MOP147.2bn,

+4.4% YoY, 85% of 7M19 level (unchanged from respective 2019 periods in Jun’26).

Global Emerging Markets | Corporate

Credit

Asia | Macau

Gaming

Outperforms China HY Ind & US peer; lags Indo & India HY

In Jul’26, Macau HY Gaming bonds had -0.14% total return/-0.63% price return,

outperforming US HY gaming peers (-0.20%/-0.69%) (Exhibit 11) and China HY

Industrials (-0.48%/-1.09%), while underperforming Indo HY (+0.40%/-0.24%) and India

HY (+0.36/-0.17%) based on ICE Index. Sector YTM is running at 6.69% as of 31 July,

widened 25bp MTD. The yield gap vs US peers is now 75bp, widened from 67bp at end

of Jun (Exhibit 10). The sector is now trading 11bp inside of India Renewables (vs. 24bp

inside at end-Jun) and is trading 27bp inside of India NBFCs (vs. 24bp inside in Jun’26).

For the monthly return, the top outperformers STDCTY ’31, MPEL ’27 and STCITY ’28.

2Q26 earnings kicked off; weaker QoQ EBITDA

Sands China/MGM China reported softer 2Q26 results, with revenue down 15%/ 2%

QoQ and property EBITDA down 32%/ 5% QoQ. Net debt increased modestly at both

companies, and net leverage rose to 2.4x (+0.3x QoQ)/ 1.5x (+0.1x QoQ) respectively.

Revised down 2026E EBITDA forecast

We maintain our 2026 Macau GGR forecast of MOP255-265bn (87-91% of 2019 levels),

although current trends suggest GGR is tracking closer to the lower end of our forecast

range. However, we revise down our 2026 sector EBITDA forecast to 85-90% of 2019

levels from c.95% previously. The revision reflects weaker-than-expected conversion of

GGR into EBITDA relative to our assumptions at the start of the year. Recent operating

trends suggest that operators have faced elevated operating costs, high reinvestment

requirements and intensified competition for premium customers.…