Australian Metals & Mining Weekly: NST residual value reset? (more) gold pricing M&A. Results: RIO, MIN, ILU, FMG ++. Price Objective Change:

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Australian Metals & Mining Weekly

NST residual value reset? (more) gold

M&A. Results: RIO, MIN, ILU, FMG ++.

Price Objective Change

NST decisions: reset, simplify or focus. Multi year delayed.

Cons. been downgrading NAV on a gold-adjusted basis outside of KCGM/Pogo. New CEO

to deliver multi year outlook in CY27? Catalyst. Will the smaller, older assets stay?

Challenges: maintaining scale/asset predictability/achieving cons. valuation/cost curve.

KCGM site visit next week. Cons. lowering prodn/increasing costs/capex but cons. NAV is

up (?). Maintain Neutral. See: Decisions: reset, simplify or focus. Key news from NST’s

production result was that the multi year outlook won’t come this CY inc. KCGM. FY27

guidance due with August result. KCGM site visit. See: Mining for the KCGM expansion.

RIO Tinto: a more decentralised RIO? Focus on copper

Market focus on +8% 1H EBITDA copper beat. Model changes: Results hosted in Aus.

with focus on productivity initiatives i.e. targeting $1.8bn run rate by end of CY with

$400m from iron ore. Copper growth key Q&A focus with more details expected in 2H.

5bn of asset sales still on track for this CY. Simandou ramp up unchanged as are all

prodn/cost guides for the FY sans tax rate. See: Rio 1HFY26 result.

EVN buying Carnaby: hunting ~15% group cu growth

EVN to acquire Carnaby in A$213m scrip deal. We like it: low cost, low capex copper=full

EHM mill. Adds 10ktpa Cu which is 15% to group. +4kozpa Au. Our EHM NAV is up 19%;

group NAV up 5%. Buy: we like the copper exposure, guidance track record and market

underappreciating the "growth story". See: Carnaby: hunting ~15% group cu growth

Production reports: FMG, GMD, ILU, MIN, WHC, GGP

FMG: FY26-28 EBITDA cut 4-8%; 205Mtpa outload vs 210Mtpa permit key constraint.

Iron Bridge: 16Mtpa by FY28, US$60-70/t opex. See: FY26 strong, FY27 capex steps up.

MIN: net debt better than expected on i) lower costs and ii) payable unwind. POSCO sell

down of lithium still expected to complete this CY. Selling at the bottom? See: Strong

FY26. WHC: FY26 guidance delivered=strong execution. We are 7% above consensus for

FY26e and expect FY27 to bring flay yoy production and costs.…