2Q26 Results: travel below expectations, strong AI CapEx & personal loan volumes

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ABS Weekly

2Q26 Results: travel below expectations,

strong AI CapEx & personal loan volumes

July was a good month

31 July 2026

For July, new issue volume totaled $34.2bn, up 9.7% MoM but down 15.7% YoY. July

2026 volume was the second-highest July on record, trailing only July 2025's record

$40.6 billion. On a month-over-month basis, spread moves in July were mixed across

ABS sectors with timeshare ABS tightening the most (8bp tighter) and data centers ABS

widening the most (9bp wider). Preliminary excess returns for July 2026 show the ICE

BofA fixed-rate ABS index with excess returns of +0.22%, outperforming the 1-5yr

CMBS index (+0.02%), the 1-5 year Bank index (-0.02%) and the 1-5 year Financials

index (0.00%). The Auto ABS index has outperformed the Other ABS and Credit Card

ABS indices. Click links ABS new issue volume and pricing and ABS Spreads time series.

Securitized Products Strategy

United States

Learning from earnings–Consumer lenders in the spotlight

Carvana Co (CVNA): Management expects a sequential quarter increase in retail units

sold and retail GPU in 3Q26. Loan sales totaled $7.8bn in 1H26. Ford / Ford Motor

Credit (F / FMC): Management funding plan includes $14-16bn in securitizations in

2026 and $10bn through July 2027. Happen (HAPN) (fka LendingClub Corporation

(LC)): Management expects 3Q26 loan originations of $3.20bn-$3.35bn and FY26

originations of $12.2bn-$12.6bn compared to previous forecast of $11.6-12.6bn. Hilton

Grand Vacations (HGV): Management expects low- to mid-single digits growth for

both tours and VPG. They expect contract sales to be flat to slightly down. OneMain

Holdings (OMF): Management expects receivables growth of 6%-9% in 2026 vs actual

of 6.4% in 2025, and NCO rate of 7.4%-7.9% vs actual of 7.3% in 2025. Pagaya

Technologies (PGY): Management expects network volume of $3.425bn-$3.625bn in

3Q26, compared to network volume of $3.5bn in 2Q26. SOFI Technologies (SOFI):

Total originations reached a record $14.8bn. Credit performance for personal loans

remained strong and within expectations. AerCap (AER). Management raised their

full-year earnings guidance. Their outlook remains supported by a favorable

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