Raising 2026E EPS by c.2%, but retain U/P

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Vinci

Raising 2026E EPS by c.2%, but retain U/P

Reiterate Rating: UNDERPERFORM | PO: 126.00 EUR | Price: 123.85 EUR

We raise our PO to €126 post H1, but retain U/P

31 July 2026

We update our forecasts for Vinci post H1’26 results and raise 2026E EPS by c.2%. Our

PO rises to €126 from €124. H1 results were a beat vs BofAe and consensus driven by

margin expansion in Energies and Cobra as well as better than expected earnings in

French motorways (cost control and productivity offsetting soft traffic). Nonetheless,

Vinci, as expected, trimmed its traffic guidance for the current year and now expects a

drop in road traffic and only stable airport traffic. Vinci is executing well in a more

challenging macro context, but our concerns around concessions expirations,

reinvestment strategy and taxation risks remain. U/P.

Equity

Potential growth in DCs in Europe and motorways in India

On the call, management hinted that French road traffic trends were improving in July

given the vacation season. This is supportive but we think some traffic uncertainties

remain given the surprising lack of traffic resilience to higher oil prices in H1. Vinci is

also more open to gain more exposure to data centers in Europe, but only on the

construction side, with no intention to invest equity in such projects. In H1’26, DC order

intake amounted to €0.9bn (<3% of group intake). Separately, management sounded

open to consider further growth opportunities in motorways in India, while striking a

relatively cautious tone with regards to opportunities in the US managed lanes market,

Expect increased focus on tax rates into September 2026

We believe market focus is likely to turn to French taxation as the 2027 budget process

nears, with the draft budget due on 6 October 2026. The French corporate tax rate

remains at 36.125% in 2026, materially above the statutory rate of 25.8%. Under current

legislation, the surtax is set to expire in 2027. However, if extended for an additional

year, we estimate a c.7% reduction in our 2027E EPS, leaving it around 4.6% below

Visible Alpha consensus. The tax on long-distance infrastructure was left unchanged at

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