ABNB/EXPE previews and travel data update ahead of earnings

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Internet/e-Commerce

ABNB/EXPE previews and travel data

update ahead of earnings

Price Objective Change

US travel trends improving, international slowing

Travel metrics and Hotel/Airline mgmt. commentary suggests that US travel demand

strengthened in 2Q, and BAC aggregated credit and debit card data shows accelerating

US lodging and airline spend (World Cup benefit). However, EMEA has been impacted by

the ME conflict & FX, and EU RevPAR has been under pressure. We think 2Q results for

Airbnb and Expedia could have 1-2 points of US upside, offset by slowing EMEA and

ongoing US/Mexico travel disruption. Booking reports on 8/4 and will help set

expectations, and we expect in line nights at 4% and a conservative guide of 2-4%

growth, with upside potential when Booking reports 3Q (BKNG preview). Duration of

expected EMEA/ME headwinds & FX could be key factors in full year guides, the positive

news is most US airlines/hotels have had stable 2H outlooks (see comments within).

03 August 2026

Equity

United States

Justin Post

Research Analyst

BofAS

Nafeesa Gupta

Research Analyst

BofAS

Expedia 2Q Preview: US travel could offset Intl headwinds

We expect Expedia to benefit from solid U.S. demand given higher NA exposure (59% of

2025 rev.), and strong corporate travel activity called out by airlines. Headwinds include

a still weak US/Mexico corridor, Intl B2B travel through the ME, and FX. We est. 2Q

gross bookings of $32.9bn (+8% y/y) and nights of 111mn (+5.5% y/y), which compare

to Street at $33.0bn and 111mn. We are above on EBITDA at $1.05bn vs $1.04bn. For

3Q, Street is at 4.3% nights and 5% booking growth ($32.3bn), and we think nights has

modest risk on Mexico/ME headwinds, while bookings could benefit from strong US

ADRs. Overall, we expect Expedia to maintain its full year bookings guidance at 6-8%,

but raise EBITDA on strong 1H performance. We think stock could react positively if

nights are inline, and mgmt. reiterates 2026 bookings at 6-8% y/y & raises full year

EBITDA outlook (from 100-125bps margin growth). Key topics are agentic risk & 3Q

marketing margins as Expedia laps 2025 efficiencies, upside opportunity is higher 2026

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