25 for 2026: A defining moment – key catalyst approaching

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UBS

25 for 2026: A defining moment – key

catalyst approaching

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 51.00 CHF | Price: 42.55 CHF

Among fastest growing EPS of any bank globally

03 August 2026

UBS is one of our “25 stocks for 2026” and it is in our Europe 1 list of top ideas. In our

view, UBS is a highly attractive proposition, and the equity story combines the potential

for more lenient capital requirements with areas of strong growth in wealth

management and capital markets. EPS is set to grow sequentially at one of the fastest

pace of any bank globally: +c.20% p.a. 2025-28e. Reiterate Buy, PO up to CHF51.0 (from

CHF50) on higher 2028 earnings – c.20% upside potential.

Wealth and capital markets remain key tailwinds ahead

UBS is the largest truly global wealth manager. Revenue growth is set to continue on the

back of cross-selling synergies between Wealth, Global Markets and IB. The scale of

AI‑related capex represents one of the largest and most significant investment cycles in

modern history. US WM has now inflected, and Asia remains the growth engine. UBS is

the #1 WM in Asia, with nearly double the size of the #2, and is also a top 3 franchise in

equities/IB in both Hong Kong and China. UBS is a key play on this theme, in our view.

A cost pivot driving significant operating leverage

UBS has completed the migration of its CS client accounts booked in Switzerland only in

March. This allows for decommissioning of IT infrastructure by year-end. We estimate

this will further contribute to drive meaningful net cost savings from here. We forecast

underlying operating costs (ex. litigation) at $36.7bn in 2026e and flat in 2027e, driving

large positive operating leverage with cost/income at 69% in 2026e and 66% in 2027e.

Catalyst due on 31st Aug.: capital compromise expected

An identity crisis is commonly defined as a time of deep self-examination regarding your

sense of who you are, your purpose, and place in the world. The CS default came with

that sense of self-doubt. However, banking is part of Swiss DNA and UBS is central to

the country’s role as an international hub. Preserving a level playing field globally is

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