1Q26 results of 4 Toyota suppliers: Concerns materialize; wait-and-see

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Japan Automobiles/Auto Parts

1Q26 results of 4 Toyota suppliers:

Concerns materialize; wait-and-see

Operating Results

Limited takeaways from briefings

Major Toyota-affiliated suppliers announced results during trading hours on July 31.

Denso and Aisin, whose results were weaker than we expected, and Toyota Boshoku,

which lowered guidance, saw sharp declines, while Toyoda Gosei was supported by more

resilient-than-expected results. The direction of stock price reactions appeared

reasonable, although the magnitude of the moves seemed significant. At the briefings,

(1) Aisin indicated the Kumamoto earthquake may not materially affect its outlook,

although most companies remained in assessment mode, (2) costs related to the

cancellation of Lexus BEV development appeared likely to remain limited, but (3)

additional catalysts for shares were limited. Toyota Boshoku's guidance cut was driven

mainly by lower China volume assumptions, reflecting weaker production indications and

additional downside risk. Outside China, Toyota still has a substantial order backlog,

warranting some attention to whether its global production guidance could be revised.

01 August 2026

Equity

Japan

Autos/Auto Parts

Shiro Sakamaki >>

Research Analyst

BofAS Japan

Tatsuya Asada >>

Research Analyst

BofAS Japan

Aika Kondo >>

Research Analyst

BofAS Japan

Denso CFO transition unlikely to alter financial strategy

Denso: OP excluding other income and expenses was ¥82.4bn, below our ¥110.0bn

estimate, due to previously flagged quality-related expenses and higher procurement

costs. While full-year guidance was unchanged, upside expectations may recede. The

company did not announce a share buyback, in line with our outlook. The new CFO said

financial strategy remains unchanged and is evaluating alternatives to the ROHM

transaction.

Aisin: Amid concerns about slowing demand from Chinese OEMs and others, powertrain

shipment volumes declined 4% YoY, making it the only one of the four companies where

utilization was a negative earnings factor. Full-year shipment guidance appears to

include some buffer, suggesting there is no need to be overly concerned about downside

risk at this stage.…