CMBS Weekly: Navigating macro risk whack-a-mole

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CMBS Weekly

Navigating macro risk whack-a-mole

Key takeaways

CMBS spreads remained stable despite rising rates, inflation concerns, and

geopolitical uncertainty. Remain neutral.

Refinance outcomes and delinquency rates remained stable away from loans

collateralized by office properties.

This week we held our 2Q trader/originator/research conference call. We review key

takeaways, themes, and other highlights.

Spreads broadly unchanged; remain neutral

CMBS spreads were unchanged this week despite a more volatile macro backdrop, which

had investors feeling like the mole in a game of whack-a-mole as they tried to sidestep

or mitigate rising rates and geopolitical headline risks. Strong investor demand

continues to offset elevated Treasury yields, inflation concerns, and geopolitical

uncertainty, leaving spreads near the tighter end of recent ranges. We maintain our

neutral outlook as we see few catalysts that would result in a meaningful near-term rally.

Delinquency rate and loan payoff update and trends

Approximately 65% of maturing conduit loans prepaid or refinanced successfully during

the first seven months of the year, increasing to roughly 70% when office loans are

excluded. SASB performance was even stronger, with approximately 70% of maturing

loans repaid or refinanced successfully, rising to 76% excluding office. The data suggest

that refinance risk remains highly concentrated in office assets Headline delinquency

rates were slightly higher in July although the stability masks several underlying nuances.

Notably, performance of commodity office properties (and multifamily to a lesser

extent) continued to deteriorate as the assets weighed on delinquency rates.

2Q 2026 trading/originator/research roundtable update

This week we held our 2Q 2026 trading/originator/research roundtable. Banks remain

active lenders, private credit continues to expand, and borrowers continue to favor

shorter-duration loans. Although conditions and capital availability remain solid for

trophy office assets, those that are older or less well-located still face significant

challenges. Data centers were the dominant topic throughout the discussion. Capital

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