Argentina Banks: 2Q26 preview: Further sequential recovery in earnings, but still muted loan growth and weaker asset quality

Research evidence excerpt

Equity Research

10 August 2026 | 2:07AM EDT

Argentina Banks: 2Q26 preview: Further sequential recovery in earnings,

but still muted loan growth and weaker asset quality

Non-operating trends likely drive most of the growth

We expect sustained sequential earnings recovery across our Argentine bank

coverage in 2Q26, albeit note that the biggest drivers could be non-operating lines

such as lower net monetary loss from lower inflation, and a recovery in subsidiary

income, as loan growth remains relatively muted and NPLs are still rising. However,

we highlight that Galicia and Banco Macro should start seeing cost of risk

improvements, while it remains pressured at BBVA Argentina. Nevertheless, earnings

should increase sequentially across our coverage, with BBVA printing the highest ROE

of 12.2%, followed by Banco Macro at 11.4%, and Grupo Galicia at 8.1%. We remain

Buy rated on BMA, where we see lower asset quality risks with the highest capital

ratio, Neutral GGAL, given high beta to a potential recovery, but the highest

short-term asset quality risks, and Sell rated BBAR, given the lowest capital ratio

among peers.

Tito Labarta

Goldman Sachs & Co. LLC

Tiago Binsfeld, CFA

+55(11)3371-4574 |

Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

Juliana Ohara

+55(11)3372-0202 |

Goldman Sachs do Brasil CTVM S.A.

ROEs should range from the high-single to low-double digits

We forecast positive net income of Ar$193.7bn at Galicia with an 8.4% ROE,

recovering further from 3.1% ROE in 1Q26 and a net losses in 2H25, largely due to

higher non-interest revenue, better cost of risk and lower net monetary loss.

Meanwhile, net income should also expand at BBVA to Ar$129.4bn with a 12.2% ROE

from 8.2% in 1Q26, given higher market-related income, and better non-operating

trends, but a still deteriorating cost of risk and flat loan portfolio sequentially. Finally,

we expect Banco Macro’s recurring net income to reach Ar$168.6bn with an 11.4%

ROE, down slightly from 11.6% in 1Q26, given lower securities gains.

Attractive valuation depends on earnings recovery

Banco Macro trades at 8.6x 2027E P/E, just below Galicia at 8.7x and BBVA Argentina

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