Signals from the Seas: Barclays Proprietary Cruise Pricing Checks

Research evidence excerpt

Equity Research

10 August 2026

Cruise Lines

Signals from the Seas: Barclays

Proprietary Cruise Pricing Checks

Caribbean 1Q27 pricing continues to soften, 2Q27 more

stable. First look at 3Q27 Europe/Alaska, pricing more or less

right on top of pre-Iran pricing (Premium stronger than

Contemporary).

In the Caribbean, our proprietary pricing tracker continues to show pressure across

Contemporary brands for sailings in the first half of next year, with weakness concentrated in

the 1Q. Recall, the industry began absorbing outsized supply and pricing disruption in

December ‘25, and we believe the main reason 2Q prices are holding up better than 1Q prices is

because the 2Q prices rolled out post disruption, and with lower starting points (and the 2Q

seasonally has less absolute Caribbean supply). See Figures 11-18. Contemporary brands were

down 3% m/m in July for 1Q27 sailings, furthering June's 3% sequential decline, with pricing

lower across all operators. 2Q27 pricing declined a more modest 1% m/m, also consistent with

June's performance. At the operator level, Carnival prices demonstrated the most stability

across both quarters, down 1% m/m for 1Q27 sailings and flat for 2Q27, while Royal/

Norwegian prices pulled back 4%/4% m/m, respectively, for 1Q27 and 2%/1% for 2Q27.

We include here our first look at Summer 2027. Pricing for Premium brands appears off to a

favorable start, running above last year in both Europe and Alaska (+3%/2% y/y, respectively, in

July). By brand, in Europe, Celebrity/Princess/Holland America prices were +10%/-1%/flat y/y

in July, and +3%/+1%/flat m/m. In Alaska, Celebrity/Princess/Holland America were +6%/

flat/+4% y/y and flat/-7%/flat m/m. Contemporary trends are more mixed across regions/

markets, with pricing in Alaska running above last year (+4% y/y in July and -1% m/m), while

Europe is tracking below (-4% y/y and -2% m/m). By brand, in Alaska, Royal/Norwegian prices

were +1%/+3% y/y in July and -1%/flat m/m. In Europe, Royal/Norwegian prices were -3%/flat

y/y and -5%/flat m/m.

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