Republic Services (RSG): Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

10 August 2026

Connor Cerniglia, CFA

US Business Services

Republic Services Inc

Bridget Alkin

Rating

Market-Perform

Price Target

RSG

227.00 USD (220.00 OLD)

Republic Services (RSG): Model Update

Model Update: Republic Services was the last Waste company in our coverage to report

Q2:26 results, beating on the top and bottom line and raising FY2026 guidance. The revised

outlook reflects changes in expectations for fuel recovery fees, diesel costs, incremental

revenue from M&A (+30bps or ~$50m), and higher commodity prices ($140/ton in H2:26).

We increase FY2026 revenue modestly, within management guidance. Q3:26 EBITDA

margins are roughly unchanged, flat YoY at 32.8% and Q4:26 margins -30bps to 31.7%,

implying a U-shaped margin cadence for FY2026. We tweak tax rate expectations for FY2026

in line with management guide. Together we model revenue growth of 4.0% YoY and EBITDA

growth of 3.7% driving 4.7% EPS growth in FY2026. H2:26 Residential volumes should

improve to the -3% to -3.5% range with FY2027 volumes down -2%. Commercial volumes

should remain flattish (better than peers), and Industrial volumes improving sequentially, which

typically lags PMI by ~6 months.

Close Date

6 Aug 2026

RSG Close Price (USD)

209.59

Price Target (USD)

227.00

Upside/(Downside)

8%

52-Week Range

238.62/196.41

SPX

7,757.64

FYE

Dec

Div Yield

1.3%

Market Cap (USD) (M)

65,634

EV (USD) (M)

79,597

Performance

YTD

1M

6M

Absolute (%)

1.1

(3.7)

(2.5)

12M

(9.0)

SPX (%)

13.3

3.4

11.9

Republic Services’s core business remains healthy, with MSD%+ core pricing, a sequential

improvement in Collection volumes, and higher recycled commodity prices. Within Collection

Relative (%)

(12.2)

(7.0) (14.5)

Residential volume losses are expected to moderate to the range of -2.5% to -2% in FY2027 Source: Bloomberg, Bernstein estimates and analysis.

as the company prunes unprofitable municipal and brokered business from acquisitions.

Commercial remains resilient supported by increasing service levels and contract wins while Price Performance, 1YR

$250

8500

Industrial is beginning to see early signs of recovery, the business typically seeing the impact

$240

of greater PMI on a 6-month lag.

8000

22.4

(31.4)

$230

…