US Waste Q2:26 earnings preview (WM, RSG, WCN): An improving setup into the print

Research evidence excerpt

US Waste Q2:26 earnings preview (WM, RSG, WCN): An improving setup into the print

9 July 2026

US Business Services

US Waste Q2:26 earnings preview (WM, RSG, WCN): An

improving setup into the print

The setup entering Q2:26 Waste earnings looks similar to last quarter’s—WM and RSG Connor Cerniglia, CFA

+1 917 344 8472 are up a similar +7% and +4% YTD, respectively, however WCN is down -2%, a marked

connor.cerniglia@bernsteinsg.com improvement versus the -11% when it entered Q1:26 earnings. Fundamentals aside, that

recovery means the upside for Waste Connections is less attractive than it was a

Bridget Alkin quarter ago, though still higher than its peers in our opinion. Recall how severe the

+1 917 344 8359

bridget.alkin@bernsteinsg.com company underperformed entering Q1:26 on the Chiquita Canyon overhang, with the

stock beating consensus a similar +1% on EBITDA as RSG, but finished up +8%, its largest

single-day earnings gain in 10+ years. Waste Connections remains our top pick, but

admit there is less pessimism embedded into the stock entering the quarter.

The Waste Industry outlook has improved modestly since FY26 guidance was given

in January, underpinned by higher FY26 CPI expectations (+90bps), strong recycled

commodity pricing (+25-35%) and RIN pricing (+17%), and greater industrial

activity (53.3 PMI vs 47.9), suggesting upside to FY26 guidance and FY27 consensus

estimates. The one area of risk surrounds Residential volumes, which has no accurate

macro or micro proxy intra-quarter, leaving us with limited visibility entering earnings.

Across our Waste coverage, companies called out a more competitive dynamic environment

than they expected in Q1:26—will this persist into Q2:26? The tailwinds we noted should