Catalyst Alert: Anglo Teck – near-term catalysts to drive re-rating from Sep 26 (positive)

Research evidence excerpt

Equity Research

4 August 2026

Anglo American plc

Catalyst Alert: Anglo Teck – nearterm catalysts to drive re-rating

from Sep 26 (positive)

We see further re-rating potential from various catalysts over

the next three to six months. With our PF AAL Teck 2027-29

SOTP implying 43/36/37% upside to shares, 34% EV/EBITDA

discount to ANTO (2030E) and ongoing potential M&A, we find

the opportunity compelling. PT +7% to £45.

Catalysts:

Unchanged

NEUTRAL

European Metals & Mining

Unchanged

GBp 4500

Price Target

raised 7% from GBp 4200

GBp 3705

+21.5%

Price (03-Aug-26)

Potential Upside/Downside

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Market Cap (GBP mn)

1. Closing of the AAL Teck merger: We see the closing of the AAL and Teck (not covered) deal

over the coming months as a key catalyst to drive a further re-rating, with approval from the

Chinese regulator, SAMR, the only outstanding item. AAL/Teck have been engaging and

cooperating with SAMR over the last six months. Teck CEO recently highlighted that the process

with SAMR is following its normal course and that they have not received any requests for

remedies – the merger would increase copper supply so it should be good for customers (i.e.

Chinese smelters). The positive is that both management teams sound confident in readiness

and timing (September 2026-March 2027 is official guidance) at recent results conference calls.

We also think last week's announcement of the new Executive Leadership Team for AAL TECK

suggests confidence that approval is imminent.

2. Portfolio simplification now closer to the endgame: The sale of steelmaking coal to

Dhilmar ($2.3bn upfront cash) is targeted to close Q1-27 (potentially earlier we think in Q4-26),

while the nickel sale to MMG ($350m) has "positive momentum" with approvals expected in the

coming months according to management. De Beers remains the final and most difficult leg of

portfolio transformation, with management highlighting the sale process is in the final phase

and that the focus is to bring it to a conclusion on acceptable terms during H2-26. De Beers is

explicitly being pursued as a trade sale rather than a listing in current market conditions.

…