Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley

M

Update

August 7, 2026 08:33 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Portillo's Inc | North America

Brian Harbour, CFA

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update

Portillo's Inc (PTLO.O, PTLO US)

What’s Changed

Restaurants | United States of America

Portillo's Inc (PTLO.O)

From

To

Bull Case

$11.00

$10.00

Updated Components

EPS

Investment Thesis

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

Risk Reward for Portillo's Inc (PTLO.O) has been updated

Reason for change

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 6, 2026)

52-Week Range

Fiscal Year Ending

EPS ($)**

Prior EPS ($)**

Equal-weight

In-Line

$6.00

$4.38

$8.21-3.78

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

0.31

0.24

0.28

0.30

0.32

0.37

0.39

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

We are updating our model post-2Q earnings. Our 3Q SSS estimate moves to +0.5%

from +2.5% prior, a bit above St at ~flat and consistent with PTLO saying QTD is

running slightly positive. For the year, our SSS estimate is now +0.2%, down from

+1.2% prior on lower 2Q vs. our ests and 2H coming down. Our 3Q RLM moves to

19% from 20%, below St 19.2%, with FY now at 20.0% (midpoint of updated PTLO

guide) vs. 20.5% prior and St 20.1%. Our FY'26 EBITDA is now ~$94M, up from

$93M prior on more favorable interest expense vs. prior, and towards midpoint of

updated guidance of $92-96M. Our PT of $6 is unchanged, based on ~8x 2027

EBITDA. Additionally, our bull case PT moves to $10 from $11 as we take a more

measured view of potential upside from unit growth and unit volumes over time.

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