Risk Reward Update: State Bank of India | Asia Pacific

Research evidence excerpt

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M

Update

August 7, 2026 07:34 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

State Bank of India | Asia Pacific

Subramanian Iyer

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update

What’s Changed

State Bank of India (SBI.NS)

From

To

Price Target

Rs980.00

Rs1,070.00

Bull Case

Rs1,490.00

Rs1,552.00

Base Case

Rs990.00

Rs1,087.00

Bear Case

Rs635.00

Rs687.00

Updated Components

EPS

Investment Thesis

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

State Bank of India (SBI.NS, SBIN IS)

India Financials | India

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 7, 2026)

52-Week Range

Equal-weight

Attractive

Rs1,070.00

Rs1,097.20

Rs1,234.70-790.00

Fiscal Year Ending

03/26 03/27e 03/28e 03/29e

Risk Reward for State Bank of India (SBI.NS) has been updated.

EPS (Rs)**

Prior EPS (Rs)**

84.15

82.82

Reason for change

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

Following good 1QF27 earnings (better than we expected), we raise our NII forecasts

79.38

71.64

88.96 103.20

83.09 101.50

4% each for F27 and F28 and 2% for F29. F27e earnings also benefit from capital

gains in 1QF27. Overall, this results in PAT estimate increases of ~11% for F27, ~7%

for F28, and ~2% for F29.

Our base case scenario value for the banking business increases ~15% , while our

bull and bear case scenario values increase ~9% each.

Our scenario values for subsidiaries decline 17%, 6%, and 22% across the base, bear,

and bull case, respectively, driven by change in valuation of the SBI Funds subsidiary

-- we now move to market cap-based valuation following listing of the company.

As a result, our price target increases to Rs1,070.

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