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Research evidence excerpt

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M

Update

August 7, 2026 03:41 PM GMT

Biopharma | North America

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLC

Terence C Flynn, Ph.D.

Equity Analyst

A picture is worth a thousand

words

Alexander Yevdokimov, Ph.D.

Research Associate

Chris Yu, J.D., Ph.D.

Equity Analyst

Comprehensive US drug market analysis (IQVIA Rx). The latest

weekly Total Prescription YoY growth (wk ending 7/31) was

+1.5% vs. +2.0% last wk and +1.3% over the past 12 wks.

Hailey Horowitz

Research Associate

Damien H Kerner

Research Associate

For week ended Jul 31, US total market weekly TRx YoY change was +1.5% vs.

+1.9% year ago ( Exhibit10 ). Rolling 4-week TRx YoY was -0.2% and rolling 12-week

Connor M Massari

Equity Analyst

TRx YoY was +1.3%. Extended unit (EUTRx) weekly YoY growth was +1.1%, below

TRx YoY ( Exhibit 13 ). Sequential weekly TRx growth was -0.5% compared to -0.4%

Morgan Stanley India Company Private Limited+

week before. Exhibit17 – Exhibit19 depict YoY momentum for key products.

Saket Agarwal

Research Associate

BMY's Cobenfy was approved for schizophrenia on 9/26/24. Scripts are ~3,370 for

the week vs ~3,290 last week. For full details on our views on the launch, see our

note "Contextualizing Cobenfy launch expectations", where we discuss that the

analogs we are most focused on are the schizophrenia volumes from the Rexulti,

Major Pharmaceuticals

North America

Industry View

In-Line

Caplyta, and Lybalvi launches. We estimated that to achieve 2026 consensus

expectations, Cobenfy TRx needs to track at ~2-5x the volumes from those launches

(see Exhibit 1 ) based on the implied consensus trend, as '26 estimate is $271mn,

which implies ~186K TRx are required to reach consensus estimates (assuming a ~

$1,450 net price, in line with our estimated price in our BMY model). We also show

the Cobenfy launch to date and our estimate of the trajectory to achieve consensus

relative to recent anti-psychotic launches, with TRx combined across all indications,

in Exhibit 2 below for reference as well.

GILD's Yeztugo vs. Descovy vs. Apretude launch comparison chart ( Exhibit 4 ).

GILD's Yeztugo (lenacapavir) was approved on 6/18/2025.…