F3/27 1Q Results: We Believe Visibility Remains Poor

Research evidence excerpt

Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley

M

Update

August 7, 2026 02:12 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Skymark Airlines (9204) | Japan

Takuya Osaka

Equity Analyst

F3/27 1Q Results: We Believe

Visibility Remains Poor

Shan Jiang

Research Associate

What’s Changed

Skymark Airlines (9204.T)

From

To

Price Target

¥340

¥350

Skymark Airlines (9204.T, 9204 JP)

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Airlines | Japan

Unchanged

Modest shortfall

Largely unchanged

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Uncertainty over the macro outlook, including oil prices and

demand trends, remains unresolved, making it difficult to take a

meaningful investment stance for the time being.

Key Takeaways

F3/27 1Q OP was -¥3.3bn, below our forecast of -¥2.0bn. We believe the

divergence from our forecast mostly stems from timing of cost bookings, and our

impression is neutral.

Meanwhile, even excluding the ¥0.7bn impact from the timing shift of

maintenance expenses, 1Q OP appears to have exceeded the company's plan.

That said, as we had expected, Skymark Airlines made no announcement related

to corporate actions.

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Up/downside to price target (%)

Shr price, close (Aug 7, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn)

Div yld (03/27e) (%)

Equal-weight

In-Line

¥350

(16)

¥415

¥24.5

0.0

Fiscal Year Ending

03/26 03/27e 03/28e 03/29e

Revenue, net (¥bn)

Operating profit (¥bn)*

Recurring profit (¥bn)*

Net income (¥bn)*

EPS, basic (¥)*

Prior EPS, basic (¥)*

EPS (¥)**

Prior EPS (¥)**

P/E, basic*

P/BV, basic

ROE (%)*

EV/EBITDA, basic

110.4

1.8

2.9

1.6

27.2

13.9

0.4

3.1

(3.4)

115.0

(1.3)

(21.3)

(22.2)

(21.3)

(22.2)

NM

0.4

(2.2)

(2.0)

124.0

4.4

5.0

82.8

84.5

82.8

84.5

5.0

0.4

8.5

(1.3)

127.7

6.7

7.3

121.1

114.5

121.1

114.5

3.4

0.4

11.4

(1.8)

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

We tweak our earnings forecasts and PT to reflect the F3/27 1Q results and

recent market conditions, but stay EW.

…