F3/27 1Q Results: Story of Share Gains Driven by Two Financial Subsidiaries Intact

Research evidence excerpt

Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley

M

Update

August 7, 2026 02:14 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

Japan Post Holdings (6178) | Japan

Takuya Osaka

Equity Analyst

F3/27 1Q Results: Story of Share

Gains Driven by Two Financial

Subsidiaries Intact

Shan Jiang

Research Associate

What’s Changed

Japan Post Holdings (6178.T)

From

To

Japan Post Holdings (6178.T, 6178 JT)

Price Target

¥2,950

¥2,970

Diversified Services | Japan

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged

Modest upside

Modest revision higher

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

The story of share price gains driven by the two financial

subsidiaries remains intact, and we stay OW as the stock still

looks heavily undervalued.

Key Takeaways

F3/27 1Q consol. RP of ¥339.8bn beat our ¥307.9bn forecast.

Yu-Pack avg. unit price was -3.6%, the ninth straight quarterly decline, with the

firm attributing this to a worse mix (higher mix of low-price parcels).

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Up/downside to price target (%)

Shr price, close (Aug 7, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn)

Div yld (03/27e) (%)

Overweight

No Rating

¥2,970

23

¥2,414

¥6,774.4

2.5

Fiscal Year Ending

03/26 03/27e 03/28e 03/29e

Revenue, net (¥bn)

Recurring profit (¥bn)*

Net income (¥bn)*

EPS, basic (¥)*

Prior EPS, basic (¥)*

EPS (¥)**

Prior EPS (¥)**

P/E, basic*

P/BV, basic

ROE (%)*

11,441 11,093 10,919 11,126

1,075.0 1,265.0 1,574.2 1,925.0

374.6 437.3 587.8 706.2

133.5 159.9 221.0 265.6

- 154.5 213.9 257.1

133.5 159.9 221.0 265.6

- 154.5 213.9 257.1

13.4

15.1

10.9

9.1

0.5

0.7

0.6

4.1

4.5

6.1

7.1

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

The above and the F3/27 1Q results of peers have reconfirmed our view that the

parcel delivery industry lacks pricing power.

We tweak our forecasts and price target to reflect Japan Post's business-level

income and expenditure trends disclosed on Jul 28, but stay OW.

Recommended action: Minor positive.…