Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley

M

Update

August 7, 2026 02:06 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley Asia Limited+

Swire Pacific | Asia Pacific

Dan Chee

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update

What’s Changed

Swire Pacific (0019.HK)

From

To

Price Target

HK$82.00

HK$92.00

Bull Case

HK$130.00

HK$143.00

Base Case

HK$82.00

HK$92.00

Bear Case

HK$46.00

HK$42.00

Updated Components

EPS

Investment Thesis

Bull Base Bear Scenarios

Swire Pacific (0019.HK, 19 HK)

Hong Kong/China Multi-Industry | Hong Kong

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Shr price, close (Aug 7, 2026)

52-Week Range

Fiscal Year Ending

Equal-weight

In-Line

HK$92.00

HK$98.95

HK$102.50-62.50

12/25 12/26e 12/27e 12/28e

Risk Reward for Swire Pacific (0019.HK) has been updated.

EPS (HK$)**

Prior EPS (HK$)**

Reason for change

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

We updated our forecasts for Swire Pacific: This follows the 1H26 results and our

7.19

9.49

8.46

9.17

8.26

9.89

9.18

analyst's latest forecasts for associate company Cathay Pacific.

• We increased the estimated profit contribution from Cathay Pacific 42% for

2026, 8% for 2027, and 2% for 2028, using the latest published EPS

estimates

• The resulting Swire Pacific underlying EPS estimates rose 12%, 11%, and 8%,

respectively.

Price target up 12%, to HK$92:

• We narrow our target discount from 45% to 40% in our SOTP valuation.

This is to align with the target discount of CK Hutchison, CK Asset, and Sun

Hung Kai (see our HK Value-Up Report for details).

• Bull and bear case scenario values change +10% and -9% owing to the latest

scenarios for Cathay Pacific. No change in target discount in these two

scenarios.

Rating unchanged at EW: The forward dividend yield of 4% looks fair and ranks

below average in our HK property and conglomerate coverage..

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companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,

investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of

interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley

Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley

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