F3/27 1Q Results: Upside in Global Business a Positive Surprise

Research evidence excerpt

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M

Update

August 7, 2026 01:42 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+

SG Holdings (9143) | Japan

Takuya Osaka

Equity Analyst

F3/27 1Q Results: Upside in

Global Business a Positive

Surprise

Shan Jiang

Research Associate

What’s Changed

SG Holdings (9143.T)

From

To

SG Holdings (9143.T, 9143 JT)

Price Target

¥1,400

¥1,600

Logistics | Japan

AlphaSignals Earnings Reaction

Unchanged

Modest upside

Modest revision higher

Impact to our thesis

Financial results versus consensus

Direction of next 12-month

consensus EPS

Source: Company data, Morgan Stanley Research

Excluding a special factor in the Delivery business, we consider

SG's 1Q results stronger than they appear at first. In particular,

we think upside in Global Logistics business, where market

expectations were low, was a positive surprise. However, we

continue to expect rangebound trading and remain EW on the

shares.

Key Takeaways

SG reported F3/27 1Q OP of ¥20.1bn, topping our ¥18.9bn forecast. Factors

behind the divergence from our expectations include the following.

Stock Rating

Industry View

Price target

Up/downside to price target (%)

Shr price, close (Aug 7, 2026)

Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn)

Div yld (03/27e) (%)

Equal-weight

In-Line

¥1,600

4

¥1,541

¥919.6

3.5

Fiscal Year Ending

03/26 03/27e 03/28e 03/29e

Revenue, net (¥bn)

Operating profit (¥bn)*

Recurring profit (¥bn)*

Net income (¥bn)*

EPS, basic (¥)*

Prior EPS, basic (¥)*

EPS (¥)**

Prior EPS (¥)**

P/E, basic*

P/BV, basic

ROE (%)*

EV/EBITDA, basic

1,644.8 1,743.0 1,869.0 1,923.0

90.2 103.2 111.6 112.9

91.8 100.1 107.7 108.7

59.1

66.1

74.8

75.4

99.0 110.8 125.3 126.4

97.0 117.0 117.0

98.2 110.8 125.3 126.4

97.0 117.0 117.0

14.9

13.9

12.3

12.2

1.6

1.5

1.4

10.2

12.1

13.1

12.4

8.0

7.1

6.6

6.4

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

* = GAAP or approximated based on GAAP

e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

The shortfall in Delivery business (due to a timing difference in recognizing bonus

provisions amounting to ¥1.6bn) was offset by upside in Global Logistic, due to

healthy demand and lower costs.

…