Home Parcel Delivery Data (June): First Impression That Quality Has Started Improving; Results Seem Better Than Indicated

Research evidence excerpt

Home Parcel Delivery Data (June): First Impression That Quality Has Started Improving; Results Seem Better Than Indicated

Update

July 8, 2026 11:02 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley MUFG Securities Co., Ltd.+MSG Holdings (9143) | Japan Takuya Osaka

Equity Analyst

Home Parcel Delivery Data Takuya.Osaka@morganstanleymufg.comShan Jiang +81 3 6836-5438

Research Associate

Shan.Jiang@morganstanleymufg.com +81 3 6836-5430

(June): First Impression That

Quality Has Started Improving;

Results Seem Better Than

SG Holdings (9143.T, 9143 JT)

Logistics | Japan

Indicated Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View In-Line

Price target ¥1,400

Key Takeaways Shr price, close (Jul 8, 2026) ¥1,613 Mkt cap, curr, basic (bn) ¥962.2

Jul 8 post-close, SG reported Jun home parcel delivery volume +6.2% YoY (+4% Avg daily trading value (bn) ¥3.0

calendar adjusted (+1 weekday vs. last year)). First impression: Minor positive.

Growth slowed YoY, but quality looks to have started to improve, giving a better

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impression than the data would suggest. Results also looked above plan.

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We estimate non-cross-border EC volumes continued on the mid-1digit% growth Valuations Looking Increasingly Stretched

trend since F3/26 4Q (likely from strengthened sales), which we view positively. Short-term (6 Jul 2026)

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The strong possibility the resulting better mix could dissipate downward pricing

Increase in Yu-Pack Base Shipping Rates: Our

pressure is another positive in our view.