Keyera Corp (KEY.TO): Margins Carry The Load This Quarter; Commentary Suggests Some Assets Are Running Full

Research evidence excerpt

Flash |

06 Aug 2026 08:24:32 ET │ 11 pages

Keyera Corp (KEY.TO)

Margins Carry The Load This Quarter; Commentary Suggests Some

Assets Are Running Full

CITI'S TAKE

KEY reported 2Q26 EBITDA of C$309mm (ex transaction costs), above

Citi estimate of C$291mm. Elevated margins across all segments

appeared to drive the beat. Notably, G&P margins benefitted from

increased producer activity in the rich, higher margin Northern G&P region.

KEY's frac throughput commentary indicates all Alberta fractionation

capacity is running at or near capacity during the quarter. Outside of

results, KEY's growth outlook and '26 Marketing guidance were reiterated

- unsurprising given the recent guidance refresh in June. Notably, the '26

Marketing guidance implies a ~$127mm ramp in quarterly EBITDA in 2H26

is required to hit the midpoint which likely reflects tailwinds from AEF

inventory sales and Plains asset contribution. Near-term Plains synergy

capture also remains on-track with a commercial synergy update likely

coming later in the year.

Implications — We expect a neutral reaction to the print; both long-term fee-based

guidance and '26 marketing guidance were reiterated. The earnings beat is positive

and largely margin related. The reaction may come down to call commentary with

respect to the durability of the margin beat and volume outlook for the remainder of

the year, especially with some maintenance events in 3Q impacting Empress. On the

back of two major transactions in 2Q, the results appear a little noisy and may be

hard to compare. We see upside to the Marketing guidance on the back of

anticipated inventory sales into a constructive iso-octane environment, but that

update might be a 3Q26 event. Any management commentary on the ongoing

Competition Tribunal process could be a larger driver of the reaction, though we

expect limited commentary here given the ongoing process.

EPS (C$)

Q1

Q2

Q3

Q4

FY

FC Cons

VA Cons

2025A

0.52A

0.35A

0.42A

0.38A

1.67A

2.01A

1.72A

2026E

0.10A

0.13E

0.62E

0.82E

1.66E

1.57E

1.55E

Previous

0.10A

0.13E

0.62E

0.82E

1.66E

na

2027E

0.70E

0.69E

0.70E

0.83E

2.92E

3.21E

2.96E

Previous

0.70E

0.69E

0.70E

0.83E

2.92E

na

2028E

0.82E

0.78E

0.85E

0.91E

3.36E

3.30E

…