Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandeb - Weekly Tracker #105

Research evidence excerpt

Not for redistribution without written consent of Morgan Stanley

M

Idea

August 5, 2026 04:09 PM GMT

Energy | Europe

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

Martijn Rats, CFA

Equity Analyst and Commodities Strategist

Strait of Hormuz and Bab alMandeb - Weekly Tracker #105

Guilherme Levy

Equity Analyst

Charlotte Firkins

Commodities Strategist

Our weekly tanker tracker analyses Strait of Hormuz traffic by

vessel type and route, alternative export flows out of the Middle

East Gulf, and oil-on-water inventory levels within the Gulf.

Key Takeaways

Alice Bergier Winograd

Equity Analyst

Energy

Europe

Industry View

In-Line

In the week to Sunday 2nd August, crude oil exports from the Middle East

averaged 6.4 mb/d, down 2.7 mb/d WoW (incl. non-SoH routes).

However, vessel traffic through the SoH has strengthened so far this week, with

outbound energy tanker transits averaging 6/day, up from 2/day last week.

The number of inbound energy tanker transits has also risen from 3/day to 6/day

on average this week (pre-conflict: 25-30/day both outbound and inbound).

7-day mavg of Yanbu crude loadings has fallen to its lowest since March – ~2 mb/

d. Majority of these cargos are now routed northwards to the SUMED pipeline.

7-day mavg of crude flows via BaM have fallen <1 mb/d, though we note this may

be revised up in coming days as rising dark transits take longer to register in the

data.

Exhibit 1:

Morgan Stanley does and seeks to do business with

companies covered in Morgan Stanley Research. As a result,

investors should be aware that the firm may have a conflict of

interest that could affect the objectivity of Morgan Stanley

Research. Investors should consider Morgan Stanley

Research as only a single factor in making their investment

decision.