Mercari (4385.T): Q4 results - In line. Sustained high growth. Conservative-looking FY6/27 core OP guidance

Research evidence excerpt

Flash |

05 Aug 2026 07:10:32 ET │ 10 pages

Mercari (4385.T)

Q4 results - In line. Sustained high growth. Conservative-looking

FY6/27 core OP guidance

CITI'S TAKE

Buy

Short-Term View: Upside, expires 09-AUG-26

Full-year FY6/26 revenue grew 19% YoY to ¥229.3bn, core OP was up

60% to ¥44.2bn, and OP increased 58% to ¥43.9bn, slightly beating

consensus. Q4 domestic GMV was up 26% YoY to ¥346.2bn, with growth

encouragingly accelerating from Q3. Fintech earnings were also

impressive, with revenue growth accelerating to +44.2% YoY, and the US

business generating double-digit revenue growth and profitability. FY6/27

guidance is for revenue of ¥260.0bn-¥290.0bn (+13%-27% YoY) with the

lower-end of the core OP guidance range set at ¥45.0bn (+2% YoY).

Revenue guidance is positive as even the lower-end of the guidance range

exceeds consensus and our forecast, while core OP is somewhat

disappointing as the lower-end of the guidance range suggests nearly flat

YoY growth. We believe Mercari is entering a profit expansion phase and

we expect a strong commitment to earnings growth.

Price (05 Aug 26 15:30)

¥4,410.0

Target price

¥5,500.0

Expected share price return

24.7%

Expected dividend yield

0.0%

Expected total return

24.7%

Market Cap

¥728,622M

US$4,619M

Keiichi YoneshimaAC

Implications — Disappointing core OP guidance could have negative near-term

ramifications for the shares given equity market expectations. However, if we

assume guidance conservatively incorporates various risks, we see high upside

potential. The gap between the targeted domestic GMV growth of 10%-15% for

FY6/27 and weak core OP guidance is sizable, and we believe the trend of revenue

and profit growth will continue in FY6/27. While there may be short-term downside

potential, we believe the shares will return to an upward trend in the medium term

on strong earnings momentum. We maintain our bullish stance on the shares. The

company also today announced a ¥10bn share buyback program.

Consol.

6/24A

Sales

OP

RP

NP

EPS

PE

¥M

YOY (%)

¥M

YOY (%)

OPM(%)

¥M

YOY (%)

¥M

YOY (%)

X

187,407

9.0

17,487

3.3

9.3

17,891

3.1

13,465

3.8

83

53.2

27.4

6/25A

192,633

2.8

27,841

59.2

14.5

29,121

62.8

26,116

94.0

161

6/26CE

220,000

…