Shiseido (4911.T): Q2 results positive – significant consensus beat, with the firm confident on H2 revenue growth

Research evidence excerpt

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05 Aug 2026 06:47:56 ET │ 10 pages

Shiseido (4911.T)

Q2 results positive – significant consensus beat, with the firm confident

on H2 revenue growth

CITI'S TAKE

Buy

Price (05 Aug 26 15:30)

¥3,269.0

Target price

¥3,400.0

Expected share price return

4.0%

Expected dividend yield

1.8%

Expected total return

5.8%

Market Cap

¥1,306,353M

US$8,282M

Q2 core OP was ¥31.4bn (+2.1x YoY), significantly exceeding consensus of

¥20.9bn and our estimate of ¥23.1bn. The upside versus our estimate

came from Japan +¥1.9bn, China/travel retail (TR) +¥5.2bn, and the

Americas +¥3.0bn (the Americas overshoot was mainly due to one-time

factors). In the key segments of Japan and China/TR, core OPMs improved

2-3ppt YoY in both regions. While the progress rate against full-year

guidance reached a high 64%, the company maintained guidance for the

full-year. Meanwhile, real revenue grew +2% YoY (Japan +3%, China/TR

+1%), in line with our expectations and improving from Q1's -3%. Japan

inbound traveler sales and Anessa in the mainland China market, which

drove Q1's revenue decline due to distribution inventory adjustments,

continued to decline YoY in Q2, although the rate of decline narrowed.

Hiroki WatanabeAC

Implications — Shiseido shares have outperformed TOPIX by c20% over the past

month, and these positive Q2 results should further boost this momentum. During

the briefing, Shiseido officials expressed confidence in revenue growth from Q3

onwards. They cited three factors: 1) the dissipation of negative impacts from

operator reorganization in travel retail in the China mainland, 2) the launch of the

Max Mara fragrance in Europe, and 3) a higher number of new product launches than

in H1.

Consol.

Sales

OP

RP

NP

EPS

PE

¥M

YOY (%)

¥M

YOY (%)

OPM(%)

¥M

YOY (%)

¥M

YOY (%)

X

990,586

1.8

7,575

-73.1

0.8

-1,267

nm

-10,813

nm

-27

na

12/25A

969,990

-2.1

-28,788

na

nm

-27,715

na

-40,679

na

-102

na

12/26CE

990,000

2.1

59,000

nm

6.0

na

105

31.1

12/24A

12/26E

1,017,031

4.8

59,465

nm

5.8

61,267

nm

41,892

nm

105

31.2

12/27E

1,047,813

3.0

71,623

20.4

6.8

73,425

19.8

51,280

22.4

128

25.5

12/28E

1,079,589

3.0

90,373

26.2

8.4

92,175

25.5

64,375

25.5

161

20.3

A: Actuals, E: Citi Research Ests, CE: Co.…