Graphic Packaging Holding Co (GPK.N): Encouraging Price Momentum vs. Steep 2H Ramp

Research evidence excerpt

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05 Aug 2026 06:41:51 ET │ 12 pages

Graphic Packaging Holding Co

(GPK.N)

Encouraging Price Momentum vs. Steep 2H Ramp

CITI'S TAKE

Shares jumped +4.8% following strong 2Q results and a largely expected trim

to ‘26 guidance. Echoing Containerboard producers, GPK is seeing a mid-year

price/cost pinch due to near-term pressure from fiber & freight and a lag in

implementing price increases; the company now faces a steep 2H ramp to

reach the lower-end of EBITDA guidance. Positively, GPK has tailwinds from

price (+$60mm from 1H to 2H), cost saves (+$15mm) and outages (+$10mm),

while Waco/productivity will add +$50-$100mm and 1H had -$40mm in onetime items. Negatively, cost inflation will be a $75mm headwind, while most

price benefits could fall in ’27. We make minimal changes to our FY26-28E

estimates following 2Q results. Rolling forward our NTM EBITDA to 3Q26 our

Target Price rises to $13 (from $11 previously).

Price momentum across the board – GPK could benefit from a series of proposed price

increases that have not yet been recognized by RISI: 2 increases for CUK totaling

+$120/ton, +$60/ton outstanding for cupstock & +$80/ton for SBS folding carton and

+$50/ton for CRB. Boxboard has been saddled with oversupply, but surging costs are

supporting higher prices. The industry posted 88.8% operating rates in 2Q’26, down 60bps Y/Y, as production rose +2% Y/Y. CUK & CRB operating rates were 92.6%,

+260bps Y/Y and +200bps Q/Q, while URB assets were 97.2% utilized, +360bps Y/Y

and +210bps Q/Q. SBS utilization fell -560bps Y/Y to 82.1%, although there appear to

be lengthy backorders for poly-coated grades following recent supply curtailments.

n

Neutral

Price (04 Aug 26 16:00)

US$11.89

Target price

US$13.00↑

from US$11.00

Expected share price return

9.3%

Expected dividend yield

3.7%

Expected total return

13.0%

Market Cap

US$3,518M

Price Performance

(RIC: GPK.N, BB: GPK US)

Details on URB opportunity – GPK sees a 100kt opportunity in URB, supported by

internal & external demand, as Waco can transition some CRB production with minimal

required capex. URB is a 2.5mmt market; GPK is targeting the 1.0mmt market for

…