Pettinari on Paper & Packaging: Previewing CCK, SON, PKG & AMPB; SBS Prices Rise, URB Rolls Flat

Research evidence excerpt

Pettinari on Paper & Packaging: Previewing CCK, SON, PKG & AMPB; SBS Prices Rise, URB Rolls Flat

Pettinari on Paper & Packaging

20 July 2026 Citi Research

Revisiting expectations ahead of earnings season – CCK will kick-off Packaging

earnings Monday AMC; we expect mostly upbeat prints & reiterated ’26 outlooks as

underlying demand appears in-line for most producers (particularly Bev Cans &

Containerboard). Mgmt. teams may sound optimistic on earnings calls following

recent price hikes (Containerboard, SBS), and the World Cup may have been a

modest boost to May/June demand. We’ll watch for potential green shoots in US

foodservice, while European bev could see some benefit from extended World Cup

runs by several teams (England, France, Spain). Our top picks into earnings are

BALL, SON and CCK on potentially solid 2Q results, muted investor sentiment, and

compelling valuation. See here for our full 2Q Preview published earlier.

n CCK: We expect reiterated ’26 guidance, potential upside to North America –

CCK will report 2Q earnings Mon AMC (Citi $2.20 vs. VA cons. $2.15; $2.10-

$2.20). We model 2Q EBITDA -1% Y/Y to $544mm (vs. $547mm cons.) as growth

in Asia-Pac is offset by a decline in Americas & Transit; we model total company

bev can vols +4.3% Y/Y. We forecast Americas Bev -$16mm Y/Y to $252mm,

despite +3% Y/Y vol growth, due to start-up costs in Brazil and insufficient PPI-

related cost pass-throughs relative to underlying inflation. CCK has pointed to

potential modest upside to vol growth guidance for North America (+2-3%) and,

in our view, this is largely supported by US scanner data (+LSD% driven by non-

alc +MSD%). Brazil bev-alc production is down -3.7% QTD in April & May on

inventory normalization following a strong 1Q (+4.8%); we continue to see